Stock Analysis

NeoGames (NASDAQ:NGMS) Will Be Hoping To Turn Its Returns On Capital Around

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To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. Although, when we looked at NeoGames (NASDAQ:NGMS), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.

What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for NeoGames:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.0071 = US$577k ÷ (US$95m - US$13m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

Thus, NeoGames has an ROCE of 0.7%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Hospitality industry average of 10%.

View our latest analysis for NeoGames

NasdaqGM:NGMS Return on Capital Employed July 20th 2022

Above you can see how the current ROCE for NeoGames compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for NeoGames.

What Can We Tell From NeoGames' ROCE Trend?

When we looked at the ROCE trend at NeoGames, we didn't gain much confidence. Around three years ago the returns on capital were 3.8%, but since then they've fallen to 0.7%. Meanwhile, the business is utilizing more capital but this hasn't moved the needle much in terms of sales in the past 12 months, so this could reflect longer term investments. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.

On a related note, NeoGames has decreased its current liabilities to 14% of total assets. That could partly explain why the ROCE has dropped. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it's own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE.

The Bottom Line On NeoGames' ROCE

Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by NeoGames' reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. And investors may be expecting the fundamentals to get a lot worse because the stock has crashed 71% over the last year. All in all, the inherent trends aren't typical of multi-baggers, so if that's what you're after, we think you might have more luck elsewhere.

On a separate note, we've found 1 warning sign for NeoGames you'll probably want to know about.

While NeoGames may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether NeoGames is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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About NasdaqGM:NGMS


NeoGames S.A. provides iLottery solutions worldwide.

The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.

Analysis AreaScore (0-6)
Future Growth5
Past Performance0
Financial Health1

Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.

High growth potential and slightly overvalued.