First Watch Restaurant Group Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 4/6
First Watch Restaurant Group has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 45.8%, while the Hospitality industry saw earnings growing at 30.3% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 18.4% per year. First Watch Restaurant Group's return on equity is 2.8%, and it has net margins of 1.4%.
Key information
45.78%
Earnings growth rate
48.63%
EPS growth rate
| Hospitality Industry Growth | 19.52% |
| Revenue growth rate | 18.43% |
| Return on equity | 2.80% |
| Net Margin | 1.38% |
| Last Earnings Update | 29 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 03
FWRG: Geographic Portability And 10% Unit Growth Will Drive Long Term Upside
Analysts now set a higher fair value estimate for First Watch Restaurant Group at about $19.45 per share, up from roughly $18.73. This reflects updated assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, even as several firms recently trimmed their price targets while another initiated coverage with a $17 target and a positive two year outlook.Analysis Article • May 12
First Watch Restaurant Group's (NASDAQ:FWRG) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:FWRG ) robust earnings report didn't manage to move the market for its...Narrative Update • May 10
FWRG: Unit Expansion And Marketing Investments Will Support Long Term Upside
The analyst price target for First Watch Restaurant Group has been reduced by roughly $1. Analysts attribute this change to slightly lower revenue growth assumptions, a modestly higher discount rate, and a small adjustment to the projected future P/E multiple, while profit margin expectations remain broadly unchanged.Seeking Alpha • May 09
First Watch Restaurant: Eggs Got Cheaper, The Stock Didn't
Summary First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. delivered positive same-store sales and margin expansion, but growth is increasingly reliant on new restaurant openings rather than organic traffic. FWRG's premium positioning is a double-edged sword amid macro headwinds, with average check growth offsetting declining traffic and mix; comps rose 2.8% despite traffic falling ~2%. Restaurant-level margins benefited from egg price deflation, but normalized margins (18–19%) are expected until organic top-line growth improves; FCF was modestly positive, with net debt at ~$229M. I maintain a Hold rating on FWRG stock, with a medium-term price target of $14–$17, as current valuation offers limited upside and macro risks could erode returns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 25
FWRG: Unit Expansion And Marketing Investments Will Drive Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed the blended price target for First Watch Restaurant Group by about $0.17 to $19.33 as they factor in slower same-restaurant sales growth and softer recent EBITDA results, while still highlighting long term plans for unit expansion and brand awareness initiatives. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates paint a mixed picture, with most firms trimming price targets while still highlighting First Watch Restaurant Group's long term expansion plans and brand building efforts.
New Narrative • Apr 18
Traffic Pressures And Menu Changes Will Test Expansion Plans Yet Support Long Term Potential
Catalysts About First Watch Restaurant Group First Watch Restaurant Group operates a daytime-focused full service restaurant concept across the United States. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Apr 10
FWRG: Ongoing Unit Expansion And Marketing Initiatives Will Support Future Upside
The analyst price target for First Watch Restaurant Group is now set at $19.50, reflecting a modest recalibration as analysts balance reduced same-store sales and EBITDA expectations with continued unit growth, geographic expansion, and ongoing marketing and menu initiatives that they see as supportive for the brand. Analyst Commentary Recent research paints a mixed picture, with many firms trimming price targets while still expressing confidence in First Watch Restaurant Group's long term growth potential and unit expansion.Narrative Update • Mar 27
FWRG: Ongoing Unit Expansion And New Store Economics Will Support Future Upside
Narrative Update The analyst price target for First Watch Restaurant Group has been revised to $19.50. Analysts cite recent same-store sales and EBITDA estimate adjustments, along with ongoing unit growth, digital and paid marketing efforts, and new store economics as key factors in their updated views.Narrative Update • Mar 12
FWRG: Unit Expansion And New Store Openings Will Drive Future Upside
Our updated narrative price target for First Watch Restaurant Group edges down from about $19.91 to $19.50 per share, as analysts generally trim targets across the sector on softer recent EBITDA and same-store sales expectations. They still point to unit growth, menu and marketing initiatives, and what they view as mispricing as key supports for the long term story.Narrative Update • Feb 26
FWRG: Long Term Unit Expansion Will Drive Future Upside Potential
The analyst price target for First Watch Restaurant Group has been revised lower to about $19.91 from $22, as analysts factor in slower expected same-restaurant sales growth, softer recent EBITDA results, and more conservative assumptions for margins and revenue growth. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show a cluster of lower price targets for First Watch Restaurant Group, with most analysts pointing to softer adjusted EBITDA, more modest same restaurant sales expectations, and reduced pricing assumptions.
New Narrative • Feb 25
Expanding Daytime Dining Footprint Will Unlock Long Runway For Breakfast And Brunch
Catalysts About First Watch Restaurant Group First Watch Restaurant Group operates a growing, full service daytime dining concept focused on breakfast, brunch and lunch across the United States. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Analysis Article • Nov 08
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 25%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a good week for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FWRG ) shareholders, because the company has just...Analysis Article • Jul 31
First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) Is Looking To Continue Growing Its Returns On Capital
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Amongst...Analysis Article • Jul 04
Here's Why First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Jun 13
Market Cool On First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FWRG) Revenues
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:FWRG ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.9x might make it look like a...Analysis Article • May 09
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
There's been a notable change in appetite for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FWRG ) shares in the week...Analysis Article • May 07
Calculating The Fair Value Of First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG)
Key Insights First Watch Restaurant Group's estimated fair value is US$14.81 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity...Analysis Article • Apr 19
First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Analysis Article • Apr 03
Is First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) Using Too Much Debt?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Seeking Alpha • Mar 16
First Watch Restaurant: Why Daytime Meals Aren't My Bet For Q1
Summary First Watch's traffic and same-store sales are declining, with breakfast seeing the steepest drop, raising concerns about its premium positioning and value-per-dollar equation. Despite revenue growth driven by new openings, First Watch faces negative free cash flow and increasing debt, complicating its financial stability and ability to return capital to shareholders. FWRG stock is not cheap, trading at high multiples with a PEG ratio that doesn't justify its growth prospects, making it a hold rather than a buy. Economic uncertainties, including fears of stagflation and tariffs, further cloud the outlook for consumer discretionary stocks like First Watch, suggesting caution before investing. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 12
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG)?
While First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FWRG ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a...Analysis Article • Feb 19
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FWRG) 25% Share Price Surge
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FWRG ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 25% share price...Seeking Alpha • Jan 21
First Watch Restaurant: A Dull Morning In Q4 Overshadowed By Other Family Dining Competitors
Summary First Watch is a unique, fast-growing family dining chain with a focus on breakfast, brunch, and lunch, avoiding discounts and maintaining high unit-level margins. Despite industry recovery, First Watch's same-store sales fell 0.3% in Q4 FY 2024, with traffic declining 3% year-over-year, raising concerns about future growth. The chain's valuation appears stretched, trading at a P/E of 41.67, significantly above the industry median, making it potentially overvalued compared to peers. I recommend waiting for a better entry point around $15-$14, considering ongoing traffic declines and competitive pressures in the family dining sector. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 11
When Should You Buy First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG)?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FWRG ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share...Seeking Alpha • Nov 18
First Watch Restaurant: Between Hurricanes And Acquisitions, The Sun Shines
Summary First Watch Restaurant Group maintains its stance against value promotions, focusing on targeted advertising, resulting in a 1.9% year-over-year decline in comparable sales due to lower traffic. The company is aggressively expanding by acquiring franchises and opening new restaurants, aiming for 10% net year-over-year growth and a long-term goal of 2,200 locations. Hurricanes in key operating areas significantly impacted Q4 traffic, but recovery is expected as headwinds subside, with a focus on improving on-premise sales. Despite high-growth potential, First Watch's valuation appears inflated; a more appropriate price target is $16, leading to a 'Hold' rating amid current macroeconomic pressures. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 12
Market Participants Recognise First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FWRG) Earnings Pushing Shares 53% Higher
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FWRG ) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a...Analysis Article • Oct 18
Investors Will Want First Watch Restaurant Group's (NASDAQ:FWRG) Growth In ROCE To Persist
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. In a perfect world, we'd like to...
New Narrative • Sep 16
Tech-Driven Efficiency And Expansion Fuel Restaurant Chain's Robust Growth Outlook
Implementation of technology and analytics is poised to enhance operational efficiency and improve customer engagement, impacting revenue growth positively.Seeking Alpha • Sep 14
First Watch Restaurant: A Non-Traditional Recipe For Dealing With Traffic
Summary First Watch's strategy of avoiding value promotions in a price-sensitive market is risky, potentially leading to negative comparable sales in Q3 and Q4. The company’s focus on menu innovations and premium pricing has helped maintain resilience, but hasn't fully offset declining traffic and average check growth. Recent acquisitions and debt levels are manageable, but continued high capital expenditures and economic risks could increase financial risk in the medium term. Despite strong growth and operational improvements, First Watch's current stock price appears overvalued, leading to a 'Hold' recommendation with a target price of $13.50 to $14.50. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Sep 04
Why We're Not Concerned About First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FWRG) Share Price
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 39.2x First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FWRG ) may be sending...Analysis Article • Aug 09
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FWRG)?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FWRG ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a decent share...Seeking Alpha • Jul 03
First Watch Restaurant: The Price For Maintaining Pricing
Summary Some restaurants refuse to enter promotional environments, maintaining profitability through differentiation strategies and menu rotations. First Watch, a daytime concept restaurant, faces a drop in traffic due to not entering promotional environments, focusing on perceived value and menu items to attract guests. Valuation of First Watch using multiples and DCF models suggests a target price lower than the current stock price, recommending a "Hold" for the company. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jul 02
First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue
If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Amongst other things, we'll want to...Analysis Article • May 21
First Watch Restaurant Group's (NASDAQ:FWRG) Earnings May Just Be The Starting Point
Investors were underwhelmed by the solid earnings posted by First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. ( NASDAQ:FWRG...Analysis Article • May 10
These 4 Measures Indicate That First Watch Restaurant Group (NASDAQ:FWRG) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How First Watch Restaurant Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar 26 | 1,271 | 18 | 150 | 0 |
| 28 Dec 25 | 1,223 | 19 | 139 | 0 |
| 28 Sep 25 | 1,169 | 5 | 138 | 0 |
| 29 Jun 25 | 1,105 | 4 | 131 | 0 |
| 30 Mar 25 | 1,056 | 11 | 124 | 0 |
| 29 Dec 24 | 1,016 | 19 | 121 | 0 |
| 29 Sep 24 | 997 | 21 | 119 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 965 | 24 | 116 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 923 | 23 | 114 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 892 | 25 | 109 | 0 |
| 24 Sep 23 | 833 | 22 | 100 | 0 |
| 25 Jun 23 | 800 | 17 | 96 | 0 |
| 26 Mar 23 | 768 | 12 | 94 | 0 |
| 25 Dec 22 | 730 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| 25 Sep 22 | 707 | 3 | 88 | 0 |
| 26 Jun 22 | 678 | 3 | 82 | 0 |
| 27 Mar 22 | 647 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| 26 Dec 21 | 601 | -2 | 68 | 0 |
| 26 Sep 21 | 548 | -5 | 63 | 0 |
| 27 Jun 21 | 490 | -16 | 57 | 0 |
| 28 Mar 21 | 403 | -36 | 51 | 0 |
| 27 Dec 20 | 342 | -50 | 50 | 0 |
| 29 Dec 19 | 436 | -45 | 61 | 0 |
| 30 Dec 18 | 350 | -12 | 38 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: FWRG has a large one-off loss of $5.7M impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 29th March, 2026.
Growing Profit Margin: FWRG's current net profit margins (1.4%) are higher than last year (1%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: FWRG has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 45.8% per year.
Accelerating Growth: FWRG's earnings growth over the past year (60.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (45.8% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: FWRG earnings growth over the past year (60.2%) exceeded the Hospitality industry 24.3%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: FWRG's Return on Equity (2.8%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/05 06:46 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/05 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/29 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/28 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is covered by 13 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jeffrey Bernstein | Barclays |
| Todd Brooks | Benchmark Company |
| Sara Senatore | BofA Global Research |