First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.

NasdaqGS:FWRG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.0b

First Watch Restaurant Group Valuation

Is FWRG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FWRG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$13.45
Fair Value
21.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: FWRG ($16.34) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($13.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FWRG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FWRG?

Key metric: As FWRG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FWRG. This is calculated by dividing FWRG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FWRG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio52.4x
EarningsUS$18.93m
Market CapUS$1.02b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FWRG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FWRG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.3x
PTLO Portillo's
26.1x15.4%US$922.1m
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
25x36.0%US$909.5m
ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings
11.6x11.0%US$1.7b
BJRI BJ's Restaurants
46.4x33.4%US$770.4m
FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group
52.4x21.0%US$1.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FWRG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52.4x) compared to the peer average (27.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FWRG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
INSE Inspired Entertainment
3.6x-30.5%US$241.90m
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
FWRG 52.4xIndustry Avg. 24.0xNo. of Companies17PE020406080100+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FWRG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52.4x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (24.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FWRG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FWRG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio52.4x
Fair PE Ratio22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FWRG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (52.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FWRG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$16.34
US$23.36
+43.0%
11.0%US$28.00US$18.00n/a11
Mar ’26US$21.32
US$24.00
+12.6%
11.1%US$28.00US$18.00n/a11
Feb ’26US$20.98
US$24.09
+14.8%
10.8%US$27.00US$18.00n/a11
Jan ’26US$18.61
US$23.55
+26.5%
11.4%US$27.00US$18.00n/a11
Dec ’25US$19.09
US$23.55
+23.3%
11.4%US$27.00US$18.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$17.17
US$20.82
+21.2%
10.4%US$25.00US$18.00n/a11
Oct ’25US$15.02
US$22.05
+46.8%
10.5%US$25.00US$18.00n/a10
Sep ’25US$16.51
US$22.05
+33.6%
10.5%US$25.00US$18.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$15.67
US$23.28
+48.5%
13.9%US$28.00US$18.00n/a9
Jul ’25US$16.95
US$25.44
+50.1%
13.9%US$29.00US$18.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$19.68
US$26.33
+33.8%
8.2%US$29.00US$22.00n/a9
May ’25US$24.97
US$27.89
+11.7%
11.8%US$32.00US$22.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$25.40
US$27.89
+9.8%
11.8%US$32.00US$22.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$25.37
US$24.00
-5.4%
11.5%US$29.00US$20.00US$21.329
Feb ’25US$22.16
US$23.56
+6.3%
9.2%US$28.00US$20.00US$20.989
Jan ’25US$20.10
US$22.67
+12.8%
11.6%US$28.00US$18.00US$18.619
Dec ’24US$18.74
US$22.67
+21.0%
11.6%US$28.00US$18.00US$19.099
Nov ’24US$17.13
US$22.33
+30.4%
9.2%US$25.00US$18.00US$17.179
Oct ’24US$17.29
US$23.22
+34.3%
6.0%US$25.00US$20.00US$15.029
Sep ’24US$19.07
US$23.22
+21.8%
6.0%US$25.00US$20.00US$16.519
Aug ’24US$19.98
US$22.67
+13.4%
6.2%US$24.00US$20.00US$15.679
Jul ’24US$16.90
US$21.25
+25.7%
4.6%US$22.00US$19.00US$16.958
Jun ’24US$17.83
US$21.25
+19.2%
4.6%US$22.00US$19.00US$19.688
May ’24US$16.69
US$20.25
+21.3%
7.7%US$22.00US$17.00US$24.978
Apr ’24US$16.06
US$20.25
+26.1%
7.7%US$22.00US$17.00US$25.408
Mar ’24US$15.74
US$20.75
+31.8%
9.3%US$23.00US$17.00US$25.378
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
US$23.36
Fair Value
30.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/21 12:27
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/21 00:00
Earnings2024/12/29
Annual Earnings2024/12/29

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is covered by 13 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays
Todd BrooksBenchmark Company