Stock Analysis

As Frontdoor (NASDAQ:FTDR) pops 11% this past week, investors may now be noticing the company's three-year earnings growth

NasdaqGS:FTDR
Source: Shutterstock

This week we saw the Frontdoor, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTDR) share price climb by 11%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. Truth be told the share price declined 33% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$260m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Frontdoor

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Although the share price is down over three years, Frontdoor actually managed to grow EPS by 24% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Revenue is actually up 5.2% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Frontdoor further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:FTDR Earnings and Revenue Growth May 3rd 2024

We know that Frontdoor has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Frontdoor stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

A Different Perspective

Frontdoor shareholders gained a total return of 13% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 2% per year, over five years. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Frontdoor better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Frontdoor that you should be aware of before investing here.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Frontdoor is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.