Why Krispy Kreme's (NASDAQ:DNUT) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem

The latest earnings release from Krispy Kreme, Inc. (NASDAQ:DNUT ) disappointed investors. Our analysis found several concerning factors in the earnings report beyond the strong statutory profit number.

See our latest analysis for Krispy Kreme

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

For anyone who wants to understand Krispy Kreme's profit beyond the statutory numbers, it's important to note that during the last twelve months statutory profit gained from US$75m worth of unusual items. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. Krispy Kreme had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to September 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

An Unusual Tax Situation

Just as we noted the unusual items, we must inform you that Krispy Kreme received a tax benefit which contributed US$3.1m to the bottom line. This is meaningful because companies usually pay tax rather than receive tax benefits. Of course, prima facie it's great to receive a tax benefit. And given that it lost money last year, it seems possible that the benefit is evidence that it now expects to find value in its past tax losses. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal. While we think it's good that the company has booked a tax benefit, it does mean that there's every chance the statutory profit will come in a lot higher than it would be if the income was adjusted for one-off factors.

Our Take On Krispy Kreme's Profit Performance

In its last report Krispy Kreme received a tax benefit which might make its profit look better than it really is on a underlying level. Furthermore, it also benefitted from a positive unusual item, which boosted the profit result even higher. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Krispy Kreme's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, Krispy Kreme has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.

Our examination of Krispy Kreme has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.