Investing in Churchill Downs (NASDAQ:CHDN) five years ago would have delivered you a 172% gain

While Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 10% in the last quarter. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. We think most investors would be happy with the 168% return, over that period. We think it's more important to dwell on the long term returns than the short term returns. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Churchill Downs

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Churchill Downs achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 21% per year. That makes the EPS growth particularly close to the yearly share price growth of 22%. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

It is of course excellent to see how Churchill Downs has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Churchill Downs' balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Churchill Downs' TSR for the last 5 years was 172%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Churchill Downs shareholders are down 4.7% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 31%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 22%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Churchill Downs is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

Of course Churchill Downs may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.