Stock Analysis

Investors in Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) have seen favorable returns of 32% over the past year

NasdaqGS:CAKE
Source: Shutterstock

It's always best to build a diverse portfolio of shares, since any stock business could lag the broader market. Of course, the aim of the game is to pick stocks that do better than an index fund. One such company is The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE), which saw its share price increase 28% in the last year, slightly above the market return of around 25% (not including dividends). Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 15% in the last three years.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

View our latest analysis for Cheesecake Factory

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last year Cheesecake Factory grew its earnings per share (EPS) by 84%. It's fair to say that the share price gain of 28% did not keep pace with the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market isn't as excited about Cheesecake Factory as it was before. This could be an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:CAKE Earnings Per Share Growth September 17th 2024

We know that Cheesecake Factory has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Cheesecake Factory stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Cheesecake Factory, it has a TSR of 32% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Cheesecake Factory shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 32% over the last year. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 0.7% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Cheesecake Factory .

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.