American Public Education, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 20%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders of American Public Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:APEI) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to US$23.50 following its latest yearly results. Revenues were US$625m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.55 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 20%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for American Public Education

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from American Public Education's three analysts is for revenues of US$655.0m in 2025. This reflects an okay 4.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 113% to US$1.19. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$650.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.32 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 9.1% to US$24.00, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that American Public Education's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than American Public Education.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for American Public Education. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple American Public Education analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of American Public Education's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.