Airbnb, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 12%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 4.7% to US$158. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$9.9b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 12% to hit US$7.24 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Airbnb

Following the latest results, Airbnb's 36 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$11.1b in 2024. This would be a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 41% to US$4.38 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$11.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.42 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$144, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Airbnb, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$185 and the most bearish at US$75.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Airbnb's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 24% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Airbnb is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Airbnb going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Airbnb that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.