Does Dollar General's (DG) Store Remodel Momentum Shift the Bull Case on Long-Term Growth?

Simply Wall St
  • In recent developments, Dollar General completed hundreds of Project Elevate and Project Renovate store remodels and opened a new DG Market in Chillicothe, while reporting an upward revision in its net sales growth outlook for fiscal 2025 and receiving several positive analyst earnings estimate revisions for 2026.
  • This focus on expanding and refreshing store formats, alongside favorable value ratings and analyst sentiment, highlights confidence in Dollar General's ability to drive growth through operational improvements and appeal to value-oriented investors.
  • We'll assess how Dollar General's remodel investments and sales outlook update may strengthen its long-term growth and value thesis.

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Dollar General Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Dollar General shareholder, you need to believe in the chain’s ability to grow profitably by expanding and optimizing its rural and value-focused store network, even as competition and labor costs rise. The most important near-term catalyst remains the company’s rapid store remodel program, which has prompted upward revisions in sales guidance, while a key risk is market saturation from ongoing aggressive expansion, this week’s news of hundreds of remodels and a new store suggests the catalyst momentum remains, but does not materially reduce the saturation risk at this stage. One recent highlight is the completed 729 Project Elevate and 592 Project Renovate remodels in Q2 2025, targeting 80 percent of Dollar General’s floor space. These efforts are particularly relevant as they align directly with the company’s raised net sales growth outlook and analyst earnings estimate upgrades, reinforcing the central role of store renewal in driving results. However, it is important to remember that, despite strong remodel momentum, rising concerns persist around the potential for over-saturation in key markets if expansion continues at this pace...

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Dollar General's outlook anticipates $46.9 billion in revenue and $1.7 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on a projected annual revenue growth rate of 4.1% and an earnings increase of approximately $0.5 billion from the current $1.2 billion.

Uncover how Dollar General's forecasts yield a $120.11 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

DG Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025

Simply Wall St Community members produced 10 different fair value estimates for Dollar General, ranging from US$75.64 to US$155.41 per share. While opinions vary, the store remodel program’s impact on sales growth continues to shape wider debates about Dollar General’s future performance.

Explore 10 other fair value estimates on Dollar General - why the stock might be worth as much as 53% more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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