Dollar Tree (DLTR) Stock Overview
Operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 6/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 4/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
DLTR Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 40 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Dollar Tree, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$111.96 |
| 52 Week High | US$142.40 |
| 52 Week Low | US$84.71 |
| Beta | 0.66 |
| 1 Month Change | -14.85% |
| 3 Month Change | -1.28% |
| 1 Year Change | 18.50% |
| 3 Year Change | 7.24% |
| 5 Year Change | 28.88% |
| Change since IPO | 9,479.69% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • Sep 09
DLTR: Temporary Tariff Refunds Will Likely Overstate Earnings Power Going Forward
The analyst price target for Dollar Tree has increased, with the fair value estimate moving from $85.00 to $98.00 as analysts respond to recent Q2 results, updated earnings models, improving traffic trends, and support from tariff refunds and share repurchase plans. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around Dollar Tree point to a mixed backdrop, with many firms lifting price targets after Q2 while still flagging execution and growth risks.Seeking Alpha • Aug 27
Dollar Tree: Positive Traffic Trends, Raised Guidance, Shares Fairly Valued (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Dollar Tree continues to put out strong operating results, which include positive traffic trends and raised full-year guidance. The stock has performed well YTD, and it has been on the rise over the past month. I believe current results support the share price track. At about 19x forward earnings, DLTR stock trades at a slight premium to its nearby peer, Dollar General. I view shares as fairly valued following the Q2 presser. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 26
DLTR: Tariff Refunds And Traffic Recovery Expectations Support A Balanced Outlook
Dollar Tree's analyst-derived fair value estimate has moved from $127.64 to $131.68, with analysts pointing to firm-wide price target increases, stronger traffic data and expectations for steady comp and margin performance supported by multi-price execution, tariff refunds and active share repurchases. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Dollar Tree shows a mix of optimism and caution as analysts reassess valuation, traffic trends and the impact of the multi price strategy, tariff refunds and share repurchases.Recent updates
Narrative Update • Sep 09
DLTR: Temporary Tariff Refunds Will Likely Overstate Earnings Power Going Forward
The analyst price target for Dollar Tree has increased, with the fair value estimate moving from $85.00 to $98.00 as analysts respond to recent Q2 results, updated earnings models, improving traffic trends, and support from tariff refunds and share repurchase plans. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around Dollar Tree point to a mixed backdrop, with many firms lifting price targets after Q2 while still flagging execution and growth risks.Seeking Alpha • Aug 27
Dollar Tree: Positive Traffic Trends, Raised Guidance, Shares Fairly Valued (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Dollar Tree continues to put out strong operating results, which include positive traffic trends and raised full-year guidance. The stock has performed well YTD, and it has been on the rise over the past month. I believe current results support the share price track. At about 19x forward earnings, DLTR stock trades at a slight premium to its nearby peer, Dollar General. I view shares as fairly valued following the Q2 presser. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Aug 26
DLTR: Tariff Refunds And Traffic Recovery Expectations Support A Balanced Outlook
Dollar Tree's analyst-derived fair value estimate has moved from $127.64 to $131.68, with analysts pointing to firm-wide price target increases, stronger traffic data and expectations for steady comp and margin performance supported by multi-price execution, tariff refunds and active share repurchases. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Dollar Tree shows a mix of optimism and caution as analysts reassess valuation, traffic trends and the impact of the multi price strategy, tariff refunds and share repurchases.Narrative Update • Aug 12
DLTR: Tariff Tailwinds And Traffic Headwinds Will Drive A Balanced Outlook
Dollar Tree's analyst price target has edged higher by about $2 to $127.64, as analysts factor in updated views on tariff related tailwinds, traffic risks, and the balance between one time margin supports and underlying earnings power. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Dollar Tree reflects a mixed but engaged Wall Street view, with many firms adjusting price targets and ratings as they reassess the impact of tariff refunds, traffic trends, multi price initiatives, and buybacks on the stock's risk and return profile.
Narrative Update • Jul 11
DLTR: Buybacks And Tariff Refunds Will Support Future Upside
The analyst fair value estimate for Dollar Tree has been raised by $5 to $170. This change reflects Street research that points to a more balanced risk/reward setup, supported by updated earnings guidance, expectations for share repurchases, and potential tariff refunds, even as traffic trends and multi-price execution remain under close watch.Narrative Update • Jun 27
DLTR: Ongoing Traffic Weakness Will Likely Limit Multi Price Earnings Upside
Dollar Tree's analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted to $85 from $80, as analysts weigh stronger Q1 execution, margin and EPS upside, and progress on the multi price strategy against ongoing traffic and execution risks highlighted across recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Dollar Tree highlights a mixed backdrop, with several firms lifting price targets after Q1 results while still flagging risks around the multi price strategy, traffic trends, and execution against longer term goals.Analysis Article • Jun 20
Dollar Tree (DLTR) Stock Could Be 10.7% Below Fair Value After Fresh P E Focus
Why Dollar Tree Stock Is Back on Investors’ Radar Recent research highlighting rising P/E ratios and earnings growth for Dollar Tree (DLTR) has put the discount retailer back in focus, prompting investors to reassess how the stock is currently being valued. See our latest analysis for Dollar Tree. At a share price of US$111.65, Dollar Tree has seen a 16.65% share price return over the past 30 days and a 13.11% total shareholder return over the past year, while the 3 year total shareholder...Narrative Update • Jun 13
DLTR: Multi Price Execution And Traffic Headwinds Likely To Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have lifted the Dollar Tree fair value estimate slightly to $125, with a modestly lower discount rate and a slightly higher profit margin outlook, offset by a reduced future P/E assumption as recent price target changes and commentary reflect ongoing debate around traffic trends and the multi price strategy. Analyst Commentary Street research on Dollar Tree is mixed, with several firms lifting price targets and others trimming them, often within a relatively tight range.Narrative Update • May 30
DLTR: Multi Price Execution And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside
Narrative Update: Dollar Tree Analyst Price Targets Analysts have raised Dollar Tree price targets across a wide range. Recent moves, such as $132 to $145, $75 to $85, and $107 to $136, reflect stronger Q1 execution, improved margins and EPS, and growing confidence in the multi price strategy, even as some remain cautious about traffic trends and execution risks.Narrative Update • May 03
DLTR: Multi Price Rollout And Store Refresh Should Support Traffic Recovery
Analysts have nudged the Dollar Tree fair value estimate slightly lower to $124.91 from $125.26, reflecting modestly higher discount rate assumptions and mixed price target moves as they balance recent Q4 delivery with long term traffic and comps questions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Dollar Tree clusters into two camps, with bullish analysts focusing on execution progress and earnings potential, while bearish analysts stay cautious on traffic trends, comp sustainability and where valuation sits versus those risks.Narrative Update • Apr 19
DLTR: Persistent Traffic Weakness Will Likely Undermine Multi Price Comp Benefits
Narrative Update on Dollar Tree The revised analyst price target for Dollar Tree reflects a mix of modest upward and downward moves, ranging roughly from $80 to $165. Analysts are balancing improving store execution, multi price initiatives, and in-line long-term guidance against ongoing concerns about traffic trends and market multiple compression.Narrative Update • Apr 04
DLTR: Persistent Traffic Weakness Will Likely Pressure Margins And Expectations
Dollar Tree's analyst fair value estimate has been updated from $75.58 to $80.00 as analysts weigh mixed price target revisions, ongoing traffic headwinds, and expectations for steadier store standards and inventory execution. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Dollar Tree reflect a split view, with some analysts lifting price targets modestly while others trim expectations or move to more cautious ratings.Narrative Update • Mar 21
DLTR: Store Upgrades And Multi Price Rollout Will Support Future Upside
The analyst fair value estimate for Dollar Tree has moved to $125.26, with analysts generally pointing to improving store standards, ongoing inventory and value adjustments, and mixed views on traffic and longer-term comparable sales stability as the drivers behind their updated price targets. Analyst Commentary Street research around Dollar Tree is mixed, with price targets spread across a wide range and ratings running from Buy to Underperform.Narrative Update • Mar 07
DLTR: Future Margin Pressure Will Likely Challenge High Expectations
The analyst price target for Dollar Tree has been adjusted modestly higher to reflect a fair value move from $73.17 to $75.58. Analysts are weighing mixed ratings changes alongside updated views on earnings growth potential, a revised revenue outlook, lower assumed profit margins, and a more conservative future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Feb 20
DLTR: Multi Price Rollout And Buybacks Will Drive Future Upside
The analyst price target for Dollar Tree has moved from $160 to $165, with analysts tying the change to expectations for the company's multi price rollout, a 12% earnings growth outlook, and a view that the post Family Dollar divestment profile may support a higher P/E multiple as well as slightly stronger revenue growth and margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a clear split in opinion on Dollar Tree, but the most optimistic voices are centering on the same themes you are seeing in the higher price targets, the multi price rollout, and the post Family Dollar profile.Narrative Update • Feb 06
DLTR: Higher Earnings Power And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Dollar Tree from $108.00 to $160.00, citing refreshed models that reflect revised discount rate assumptions, updated revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and slightly higher future P/E multiples, along with a mix of recent price target cuts, downgrades, and raises across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Dollar Tree reflects a split tape, with some firms taking a more cautious stance while others see room for upside as the company executes on its plans and the consumer environment evolves.Narrative Update • Jan 23
DLTR: SNAP Headwinds And Mixed Consumer Outlook Likely To Cap Future Upside
Analysts modestly lifted their Dollar Tree fair value estimate from $119.17 to $122.26 as mixed but generally supportive price target revisions, including higher targets from several firms alongside fresh downgrades and caution around lower income consumers and SNAP exposure, led to slightly adjusted growth, margin, discount rate, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Dollar Tree reflects a split view, with some firms lifting price targets and others turning more cautious as they reassess execution risks and the spending power of lower income shoppers.Narrative Update • Jan 08
DLTR: Future Returns Will Be Constrained By SNAP Benefit Reductions
Narrative Update on Dollar Tree The analyst price target for Dollar Tree in our model has edged higher by about US$1, reflecting slightly adjusted fair value and discount rate inputs as analysts weigh mixed sector views, recent target cuts toward US$103 and US$126, and more constructive targets up to US$149 that factor in potential consumer tax savings and rate cuts, alongside SNAP related headwinds for value focused shoppers. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Dollar Tree reflects a split view, with some bullish analysts raising targets and others turning more cautious as they reassess risks tied to the lower income shopper and government benefits.Narrative Update • Dec 25
DLTR: Future Returns Will Balance SNAP Pressures With Execution And Competitive Risks
Analysts have nudged their Dollar Tree price target slightly higher to about $118 per share, reflecting modestly better long term margin and valuation expectations, even as they flag mounting pressure on lower income shoppers from reduced SNAP benefits and intensifying value competition among discounters. Analyst Commentary Analyst views on Dollar Tree remain mixed, with more cautious commentary emerging even as some on the Street acknowledge operational improvements and long term margin potential.Analysis Article • Dec 16
Market Participants Recognise Dollar Tree, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:DLTR) Earnings Pushing Shares 25% Higher
Dollar Tree, Inc. ( NASDAQ:DLTR ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 25% gain in the last month alone...Narrative Update • Dec 10
DLTR: Future Performance Will Reflect SNAP Headwinds And Execution Risks
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Dollar Tree higher to approximately $115 from about $107 per share, citing a lower discount rate, modestly improved profit margin expectations, and clearer, though timing-uncertain, earnings power, despite mounting headwinds for lower income consumers and SNAP exposed retailers. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a more balanced, and in some cases cautious, stance on Dollar Tree, with views diverging on the pace and durability of earnings improvement as macro and company specific risks build.Narrative Update • Nov 26
DLTR: Execution Risks And Consumer Pressures Will Shape Performance Amidst Industry Shifts
Dollar Tree's analyst price target has been modestly reduced to $107 from $108. This reflects analyst concerns about a more challenging outlook for lower-income consumers and increased competition among discount retailers.Narrative Update • Nov 05
DLTR: Macro Headwinds And SNAP Benefit Cuts Will Impact Earnings Outlook Ahead
Dollar Tree's analyst price target saw a modest reduction of less than $0.10, as analysts cite continued macro headwinds, operational uncertainties, and shifting valuation multiples for the slight adjustment. Analyst Commentary Analysts remain divided on Dollar Tree's prospects, with both bullish and bearish narratives present following recent developments.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Remain Split on Dollar Tree Outlook as Valuation Slips Amid Mixed Signals
Dollar Tree's analyst price target has been revised slightly lower, from around $109.91 to $108.35, as analysts weigh solid recent results and sales growth while considering lingering concerns about margin visibility and operational execution. Analyst Commentary Analysts remain divided in their outlook on Dollar Tree, with recent commentary reflecting both confidence in the company's growth drivers and caution regarding the challenges ahead.Narrative Update • Oct 08
Multi-Price Rollout Will Broaden Retail Opportunities
Dollar Tree’s analyst price target has been modestly reduced to $109.91 from $112.30, as analysts cite solid sales growth and improving margins but remain cautious due to ongoing margin pressures as well as uncertainty around tariffs and operating costs. Analyst Commentary Recent Street Research highlights a diverse range of views on Dollar Tree's outlook, with both bullish and bearish analysts weighing in on valuation, operational progress, and growth strategies following the company's earnings report and guidance update.Narrative Update • Aug 27
Core Focus And 30 Conversions Will Boost Efficiency
Upward analyst revisions for Dollar Tree reflect confidence in continued sales momentum, successful multi-price strategies, and effective tariff mitigation despite ongoing macro risks, resulting in a modest increase in the consensus price target from $109.13 to $110.43. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight strong comparable sales momentum, driven by increased traffic and successful multi-price and merchandising strategies.Seeking Alpha • Mar 26
Dollar Tree Goes It Alone
Summary Dollar Tree, Inc.'s stock is rising as it sells Family Dollar for $1.007 billion, focusing on its flagship brand and reducing operating expenses. Q4 sales missed estimates but were in line after excluding Family Dollar; same-store sales rose 2%, indicating resilience despite economic pressure. Earnings and gross profit declined, impacted by higher selling expenses and strategic review costs; EPS guidance for fiscal 2025 is $5.00 to $5.50. DLTR stock is a long-term buy, with solid revenue growth, potential price hikes, and a strong cash position, despite tariff impacts and economic challenges. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 13
Family Dollar Spin-Off: Dollar Tree's Path To Recovery
Summary Dollar Tree reported a 3.5% increase in net sales for Q3, driven by higher store traffic and improved margins. Management is exploring the potential sale or spin-off of the underperforming Family Dollar segment. Dollar Tree is trading near its 52-week low; the firm is undervalued compared to historical and industry averages. Optimized store formats, easing inflation, and potential macroeconomic improvements position Dollar Tree. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 03
Dollar Tree Stores: Short-Term Concerns But Still A Buy
Summary I reiterate my buy rating for Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR) due to improved fundamentals and a valuation that remains attractively cheap. Despite near-term concerns about the MPP initiative and slower SSSG, DLTR has shown sequential SSSG improvement driven by increased store traffic. Family Dollar's strong performance in discretionary goods suggests potential for similar success across the Dollar Tree banner, validating DLTR's strategic initiatives. With a more favorable macro environment and continued successful execution, DLTR is poised to return to mid-single-digit revenue growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 09
Dollar Tree: A High Risk, High Return Contrarian Play
Summary Dollar Tree’s strategic review of Family Dollar has the potential to finally draw a line under what has been an extremely disappointing acquisition. The company is currently navigating difficult macroeconomic conditions and also dealing with internal challenges of its own making. The stock has downside risks aplenty, including management instability and uncertainty regarding the impact of import tariff changes. The market appears to be attributing an extremely low value to the group’s Family Dollar segment, contributing to a material undervaluation of the entire Dollar Tree group. For risk-tolerant investors with a medium-term investment time horizon, Dollar Tree represents an attractive risk-return proposition. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 02
Sell Dollar Tree Heading Into Q3 Earnings
Summary Dollar Tree is under pressure due to store closures, rising SG&A expenses, and competition from Walmart. Analysts project Q3 2024 EPS & sales growth despite fewer stores, but this seems unlikely given recent performance and Walmart's gains. The CEO's recent departure and potential tariffs under the Trump administration add uncertainty in the coming months. Long-term investors seeking dollar store exposure might prefer DLTR due to stable leadership. Speculative traders could be enticed by the substantial premium of options near the earnings release. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 19
Dollar Tree: Limited Value As Temu Competition And Import Inflation Destroys Moat
Summary Dollar Tree and Dollar General are struggling due to rising operating costs, supply-side inflation, and competition from online and bulk retailers. Dollar Tree's high gross margins may be an issue, as customers will generally find better deals online or in economically-scaled retailers like Walmart. Despite a low valuation, Dollar Tree's business model is outdated, and its long-term viability is questionable without significant strategic changes, such as a shift toward consumables. The company is closing underperforming stores and pivoting away from high-theft areas and items, but it has not proven its ability to retain a moat. DLTR may be a valuable turnaround opportunity if its next CEO is more willing to take aggressive measures to secure its long-term competitive position. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 06
Dollar Tree Has Become Too Cheap To Ignore
Summary Dollar Tree is rated as a Buy due to its low valuation, strategic initiatives, and potential upside from a Family Dollar spinoff or restructuring. Key initiatives include multi-price expansion, acquisition of 99 Cents Only stores, supply chain enhancements, and accelerated store growth focusing on Dollar Tree locations. Falling interest rates should boost discretionary sales, further supporting DLTR's profitability and growth potential. Despite risks like CEO departure and liability claims, DLTR's initiatives and low valuation present a compelling investment opportunity with good upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| DLTR | US Consumer Retailing | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -6.1% | -2.4% | -0.1% |
| 1Y | 18.5% | 3.4% | 11.9% |
Return vs Industry: DLTR exceeded the US Consumer Retailing industry which returned 3.4% over the past year.
Return vs Market: DLTR exceeded the US Market which returned 11.9% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| DLTR volatility | |
|---|---|
| DLTR Average Weekly Movement | 5.1% |
| Consumer Retailing Industry Average Movement | 5.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 6.8% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 15.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.9% |
Stable Share Price: DLTR has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: DLTR's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | 150,000 | Mike Creedon | www.dollartree.com |
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. The company offers consumable merchandise comprising everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise consisting of toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods, including Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine’s Day merchandise. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Dollar Tree, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| DLTR fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$21.01b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$1.62b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$20.07b |
13.0x
P/E Ratio1.0x
P/S RatioIs DLTR overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| DLTR income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$20.07b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$12.61b |
| Gross Profit | US$7.46b |
| Other Expenses | US$5.84b |
| Earnings | US$1.62b |
Last Reported Earnings
Aug 01, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 8.62 |
| Gross Margin | 37.18% |
| Net Profit Margin | 8.06% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 85.6% |
How did DLTR perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/21 03:59 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/08/01 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Dollar Tree, Inc. is covered by 49 analysts. 25 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Will Chien | Accountability Research Corporation |
| Seth Sigman | Barclays |
| Meredith Adler | Barclays |