Dollar Tree, Inc.

NasdaqGS:DLTR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$20.9b

Dollar Tree Valuation

Is DLTR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of DLTR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: DLTR ($105.92) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($142.15)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: DLTR is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DLTR?

Key metric: As DLTR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DLTR. This is calculated by dividing DLTR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DLTR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.1x
EarningsUS$1.23b
Market CapUS$20.90b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DLTR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DLTR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.6x
DG Dollar General
18.1x6.97%US$27.4b
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings
21.8x5.04%US$12.6b
TGT Target
13.8x4.04%US$51.3b
PSMT PriceSmart
28.7x14.96%US$4.2b
DLTR Dollar Tree
17.1x5.01%US$20.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DLTR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the peer average (20.6x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DLTR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Retailing Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WNW Meiwu Technology
2.2xn/aUS$9.04m
BLMH Blum Holdings
0.7xn/aUS$5.93m
No more companies available in this PE range
DLTR 17.1xIndustry Avg. 19.2xNo. of Companies5PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DLTR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (19.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DLTR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DLTR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.1x
Fair PE Ratio19.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DLTR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DLTR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$105.92
US$125.26
+18.26%
18.97%US$165.00US$80.00n/a23
Mar ’27US$126.48
US$125.30
-0.93%
19.86%US$165.00US$75.00n/a23
Feb ’27US$117.59
US$122.26
+3.97%
20.66%US$165.00US$75.00n/a23
Jan ’27US$123.01
US$117.78
-4.25%
17.42%US$149.00US$75.00n/a23
Dec ’26US$109.89
US$107.13
-2.51%
15.87%US$135.00US$70.00n/a23
Nov ’26US$99.12
US$108.26
+9.22%
16.47%US$135.00US$70.00n/a23
Oct ’26US$90.32
US$112.17
+24.20%
15.20%US$140.00US$75.00n/a23
Sep ’26US$109.17
US$111.74
+2.35%
16.59%US$138.00US$70.00n/a23
Aug ’26US$114.72
US$101.65
-11.39%
16.93%US$138.00US$70.00n/a23
Jul ’26US$101.50
US$95.74
-5.67%
10.50%US$111.00US$70.00n/a23
Jun ’26US$90.26
US$87.74
-2.79%
12.30%US$108.00US$70.00n/a22
May ’26US$81.27
US$83.71
+3.00%
12.58%US$103.22US$70.00n/a23
Apr ’26US$75.34
US$82.93
+10.07%
11.64%US$104.00US$70.00n/a23
Mar ’26US$72.86
US$84.33
+15.75%
12.98%US$105.00US$70.00US$126.4825
Feb ’26US$73.35
US$84.13
+14.70%
13.28%US$105.00US$70.00US$117.5925
Jan ’26US$74.94
US$84.13
+12.27%
13.28%US$105.00US$70.00US$123.0125
Dec ’25US$71.27
US$82.25
+15.40%
18.01%US$120.00US$64.00US$109.8925
Nov ’25US$66.60
US$85.05
+27.70%
22.61%US$145.00US$62.00US$99.1226
Oct ’25US$70.44
US$85.73
+21.70%
23.07%US$145.00US$62.00US$90.3225
Sep ’25US$84.49
US$131.13
+55.20%
12.41%US$170.00US$105.00US$109.1724
Aug ’25US$99.75
US$137.26
+37.60%
12.17%US$170.00US$112.00US$114.7224
Jul ’25US$107.25
US$138.38
+29.03%
11.30%US$170.00US$115.00US$101.5024
Jun ’25US$117.95
US$148.38
+25.80%
11.84%US$180.00US$115.00US$90.2624
May ’25US$118.56
US$149.47
+26.07%
11.86%US$180.00US$115.00US$81.2725
Apr ’25US$135.91
US$149.44
+9.96%
12.22%US$180.00US$112.00US$75.3424
Mar ’25US$148.44
US$150.33
+1.28%
14.05%US$195.00US$105.00US$72.8623
US$125.26
Fair Value
15.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
23
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/03/22 16:18
End of Day Share Price 2026/03/20 00:00
Earnings2026/01/31
Annual Earnings2026/01/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Dollar Tree, Inc. is covered by 49 analysts. 24 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Will ChienAccountability Research Corporation
Seth SigmanBarclays
Meredith AdlerBarclays