Dollar Tree, Inc.

NasdaqGS:DLTR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$15.5b

Dollar Tree Valuation

Is DLTR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DLTR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$80.13
Fair Value
10.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
25
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: DLTR ($72.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($80.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DLTR is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DLTR?

Key metric: As DLTR is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for DLTR. This is calculated by dividing DLTR's market cap by their current revenue.
What is DLTR's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.5x
SalesUS$31.22b
Market CapUS$15.50b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does DLTR's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for DLTR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
DG Dollar General
0.4x4.5%US$15.1b
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings
0.6x5.6%US$12.6b
TGT Target
0.6x2.7%US$61.2b
PSMT PriceSmart
0.5x8.1%US$2.6b
DLTR Dollar Tree
0.5x3.1%US$15.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: DLTR is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does DLTR's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Retailing Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance
0.07x1.9%US$10.82b
UNFI United Natural Foods
0.05x0.4%US$1.71b
SPTN SpartanNash
0.06x1.4%US$607.92m
YI 111
0.02x8.6%US$36.45m
DLTR 0.5xIndustry Avg. 0.4xNo. of Companies11PS00.40.81.21.62+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: DLTR is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DLTR's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DLTR PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.5x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: DLTR is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DLTR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$72.07
US$84.13
+16.7%
13.3%US$105.00US$70.00n/a25
Jan ’26US$74.94
US$84.13
+12.3%
13.3%US$105.00US$70.00n/a25
Dec ’25US$71.27
US$82.25
+15.4%
18.0%US$120.00US$64.00n/a25
Nov ’25US$66.60
US$85.05
+27.7%
22.6%US$145.00US$62.00n/a26
Oct ’25US$70.44
US$85.73
+21.7%
23.1%US$145.00US$62.00n/a25
Sep ’25US$84.49
US$131.13
+55.2%
12.4%US$170.00US$105.00n/a24
Aug ’25US$99.75
US$137.26
+37.6%
12.2%US$170.00US$112.00n/a24
Jul ’25US$107.25
US$138.38
+29.0%
11.3%US$170.00US$115.00n/a24
Jun ’25US$117.95
US$148.38
+25.8%
11.8%US$180.00US$115.00n/a24
May ’25US$118.56
US$149.47
+26.1%
11.9%US$180.00US$115.00n/a25
Apr ’25US$135.91
US$149.44
+10.0%
12.2%US$180.00US$112.00n/a24
Mar ’25US$148.44
US$150.33
+1.3%
14.1%US$195.00US$105.00n/a23
Feb ’25US$135.63
US$149.25
+10.0%
14.1%US$195.00US$105.00n/a23
Jan ’25US$142.05
US$145.77
+2.6%
14.5%US$195.00US$105.00US$74.9423
Dec ’24US$126.15
US$144.63
+14.6%
14.8%US$195.00US$105.00US$71.2723
Nov ’24US$111.49
US$144.98
+30.0%
15.1%US$195.00US$105.00US$66.6023
Oct ’24US$106.45
US$150.66
+41.5%
13.2%US$195.00US$104.00US$70.4422
Sep ’24US$118.74
US$150.89
+27.1%
12.7%US$195.00US$104.00US$84.4923
Aug ’24US$153.03
US$153.24
+0.1%
12.0%US$195.00US$105.00US$99.7523
Jul ’24US$143.50
US$152.98
+6.6%
12.0%US$195.00US$105.00US$107.2523
Jun ’24US$129.56
US$150.32
+16.0%
13.6%US$195.00US$109.00US$117.9523
May ’24US$153.67
US$157.67
+2.6%
14.0%US$195.00US$109.00US$118.5623
Apr ’24US$143.55
US$157.40
+9.7%
13.7%US$195.00US$109.00US$135.9123
Mar ’24US$148.12
US$159.73
+7.8%
12.1%US$195.00US$109.00US$148.4422
Feb ’24US$153.54
US$162.86
+6.1%
12.6%US$195.00US$109.00US$135.6321
Jan ’24US$141.44
US$163.33
+15.5%
12.3%US$195.00US$109.00US$142.0521
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 25 Analysts
US$84.13
Fair Value
14.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
25
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/20 06:28
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings2024/11/02
Annual Earnings2024/02/03

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Dollar Tree, Inc. is covered by 56 analysts. 25 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Will ChienAccountability Research Corporation
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Seth SigmanBarclays