PulteGroup, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 8.5%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.0% to US$106 in the week after its latest annual results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$18b were in line with what the analysts predicted, PulteGroup surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$14.69 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for PulteGroup

Following last week's earnings report, PulteGroup's ten analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$18.1b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 19% to US$12.29 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$18.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.15 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$139, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic PulteGroup analyst has a price target of US$179 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$116. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that PulteGroup's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that PulteGroup is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for PulteGroup going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for PulteGroup that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.