On Holding AG Just Missed EPS By 41%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.9% to close at US$53.35 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenue of CHF636m surpassed estimates by 2.7%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 41% below expectations at CHF0.10 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for On Holding

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from On Holding's 22 analysts is for revenues of CHF2.93b in 2025. This reflects a major 36% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 98% to CHF0.78. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF2.89b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF0.79 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 13% to US$57.57. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values On Holding at US$63.36 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$35.28. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the On Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that On Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 28% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 38% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while On Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on On Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for On Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of On Holding's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.