Green Brick Partners, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 31%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE:GRBK) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Green Brick Partners delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, hitting US$561m-12% above indicated-andUS$2.32-31% above forecasts- respectively Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Green Brick Partners after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Green Brick Partners

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Green Brick Partners from four analysts is for revenues of US$2.09b in 2024. If met, it would imply a solid 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 12% to US$8.30. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.01b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.41 in 2024. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Green Brick Partners' future following the latest results, with a decent improvement in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 6.5% to US$57.50per share. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Green Brick Partners analyst has a price target of US$62.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$53.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Green Brick Partners is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Green Brick Partners' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 24% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 20% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Green Brick Partners is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Green Brick Partners following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Green Brick Partners analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Green Brick Partners has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com