Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) After Its First-Quarter Results

Last week, you might have seen that D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.4% to US$139 in the past week. Revenues of US$7.7b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$2.82, missing estimates by 2.3%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for D.R. Horton

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for D.R. Horton from 18 analysts is for revenues of US$36.7b in 2024. If met, it would imply a credible 2.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$14.19, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$36.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.18 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$161, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on D.R. Horton, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$192 and the most bearish at US$130 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that D.R. Horton's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than D.R. Horton.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that D.R. Horton's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on D.R. Horton. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for D.R. Horton going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that D.R. Horton is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.