D.R. Horton, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. D.R. Horton delivered a significant beat with revenue hitting US$9.1b and statutory EPS reaching US$3.52, both beating estimates by more than 10%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for D.R. Horton

Following last week's earnings report, D.R. Horton's 19 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$36.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 5.6% to US$14.19 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$36.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.21 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$168, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on D.R. Horton, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$200 and the most bearish at US$130 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.6% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - D.R. Horton is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for D.R. Horton going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with D.R. Horton .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.