When Should You Buy Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (NYSE:DFH)?

Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (NYSE:DFH), is not the largest company out there, but it led the NYSE gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Let’s examine Dream Finders Homes’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

See our latest analysis for Dream Finders Homes

What Is Dream Finders Homes Worth?

According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 5.15x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 7.45x, which means if you buy Dream Finders Homes today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Dream Finders Homes should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Dream Finders Homes’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Dream Finders Homes generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Dream Finders Homes, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -9.8%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? Currently, DFH appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on DFH, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on DFH for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on DFH should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.

If you'd like to know more about Dream Finders Homes as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 3 warning signs with Dream Finders Homes, and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you are no longer interested in Dream Finders Homes, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.