Mattel Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
Mattel's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -8.9%, while the Leisure industry saw earnings declining at 8.9% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 0.07% per year. Mattel's return on equity is 23.7%, and it has net margins of 9.3%.
Key information
-8.92%
Earnings growth rate
-6.92%
EPS growth rate
| Leisure Industry Growth | 16.88% |
| Revenue growth rate | 0.073% |
| Return on equity | 23.68% |
| Net Margin | 9.27% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Mattel: Lackluster Execution Limits Upside (Rating Downgrade)
Apr 30
MAT: 2026 Spending And Tariff Relief Will Shape Content Option Upside
Analysts have trimmed their average price targets for Mattel by a few dollars, reflecting a mix of cautious views around 2026 investment spending and recent target cuts, along with supportive commentary on potential EPS tailwinds from lower tariffs, new content and entertainment optionality. Analyst Commentary Street research around Mattel has become more mixed, with several firms cutting price targets or shifting to a more cautious stance even as others see upside tied to content, entertainment options and potential tariff related EPS support.
MAT: Content And Entertainment Expansion Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Outlook
Mattel's updated analyst price target shows a modest adjustment around $27, as analysts balance recent target cuts with expectations that investments for 2026, potential tariff tailwinds, and content and entertainment initiatives could influence earnings power over time. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mattel shows a mix of target cuts and fresh initiations, with some firms highlighting potential earnings support from 2026 investment spending, lower tariffs, and new content and entertainment efforts.MAT: 2026 Investment Spend And Tariff Relief Will Shape Balanced Upside
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price expectations for Mattel, with recent targets ranging from $17 to $30, as they weigh a 2026 investment year against potential catalysts in content, entertainment tie ins, and possible tariff relief. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mattel reflects a mix of optimism around long term growth initiatives and caution around near term execution and spending plans, especially as 2026 is framed as an investment year.MAT: Content And Gaming Expansion Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Outlook
The analyst price target for Mattel has shifted from a fair value estimate of $29 to about $27.16, as analysts weigh higher assumed revenue growth and a slightly richer future P/E against lower projected profit margins, a modestly higher discount rate, and a recent mix of cautious and supportive research views around 2026 investment spending, content opportunities, and tariff related EPS tailwinds. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary around Mattel reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several Bullish analysts pointing to potential upside tied to content, new growth initiatives, and possible tariff related EPS benefits, while others highlight uncertainties around 2026 investment spending and the consumer backdrop for toys.MAT: 2026 Execution And Macro Toy Demand Risks Will Limit Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Mattel in a mixed way, with some firms lifting targets toward $18 to $30 on product lineup strength and clearer growth initiatives, while others have trimmed estimates by $4 to $7 and moved to more cautious ratings, reflecting a more balanced view of risk and reward. Analyst Commentary Street research on Mattel has shifted toward a more balanced, and in some cases cautious, stance.We Think You Can Look Beyond Mattel's (NASDAQ:MAT) Lackluster Earnings
Feb 17
MAT: 2026 Toy Demand Headwinds And Execution Risks Will Restrain Upside
The analyst price target for Mattel has shifted from $20 to $14, as analysts factor in more cautious assumptions around growth, margins and valuation multiples following a series of recent downgrades and target cuts across the Street. Analyst Commentary Across the Street, recent research on Mattel has tilted more cautious, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets and flagging execution and growth risks that they feel are not fully reflected in the current share price.MAT: Fair Outlook As 2026 Toy Demand And New Initiatives Shape Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price targets on Mattel in mixed fashion, including at least one increase to US$30 and one reaffirmed at US$21. This reflects a balance of views that hinges on progress in newer growth initiatives and caution around the toy market outlook into 2026.MAT: Fair Outlook Balances New Initiatives With Toy Cycle Execution Risks
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Mattel from $17 to $20. They cite a higher assumed future P/E multiple and updated views on revenue growth, while balancing this with a higher discount rate and slightly lower profit margin expectations amid mixed recent rating and price target actions on the stock.MAT: Expanded Digital And Licensing Platforms Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Outlook
Analysts have slightly raised their price target on Mattel to approximately $29 per share. This reflects modestly lower growth and margin expectations, offset by a higher anticipated future earnings multiple.MAT: Digital And Licensing Expansion Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Mattel to $29 from $30, citing a higher perceived discount rate and a lower assumed future P/E multiple, which more than offset modestly stronger expectations for revenue growth and profit margins. What's in the News Mattel reiterated its 2025 guidance, expecting constant currency net sales growth of 1% to 3%, signaling steady underlying demand despite market volatility (company guidance).Analysts Are Updating Their Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results
Aug 01Here's Why Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Jul 23Investors Will Want Mattel's (NASDAQ:MAT) Growth In ROCE To Persist
Jul 02There's No Escaping Mattel, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MAT) Muted Earnings Despite A 34% Share Price Rise
May 21Here's Why Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
Apr 24Investors Don't See Light At End Of Mattel, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MAT) Tunnel
Apr 06We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT)
Mar 18Mattel Has Good Long-Term Outlook, But Is A Short-Term Hold
Mar 11Is Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Using Too Much Debt?
Jan 13Mattel: Diversification Plan Moves Into Manga Comic Book Partnership With TokyoPop
Jan 11Mattel, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MAT) P/S Is On The Mark
Dec 11Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger
Nov 26Mattel: A Solid IP Treasure Trove Acquisition Candidate Hiding In Plain Sight
Oct 29Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Oct 11Mattel: Iconic Brands, Rising Costs, And Acquisition Hopes
Oct 08Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Mattel makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 5,383 | 499 | 2,055 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 5,348 | 398 | 2,027 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 5,228 | 432 | 2,029 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 5,336 | 526 | 2,020 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 5,397 | 530 | 2,018 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 5,380 | 542 | 2,001 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 5,354 | 548 | 1,964 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 5,429 | 322 | 1,962 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 5,436 | 293 | 1,949 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 5,441 | 214 | 1,965 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 5,222 | 83 | 1,836 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 5,059 | 227 | 1,807 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 5,208 | 266 | 1,803 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 5,435 | 394 | 1,788 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 5,828 | 604 | 1,907 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 5,834 | 1,109 | 1,895 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 5,625 | 1,037 | 1,905 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 5,458 | 903 | 1,881 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 5,289 | 806 | 1,907 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 5,163 | 322 | 1,917 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 4,869 | 217 | 1,854 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 4,588 | 124 | 1,869 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 4,436 | -5 | 1,820 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 4,281 | -246 | 1,904 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 4,409 | -243 | 1,923 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 4,505 | -219 | 1,927 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 4,555 | -204 | 1,885 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 4,511 | -268 | 1,822 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 4,496 | -398 | 1,835 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 4,515 | -533 | 2,043 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 4,601 | -825 | 2,001 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 4,724 | -1,434 | 2,089 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 4,855 | -1,252 | 2,134 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 4,881 | -1,055 | 2,169 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 5,105 | -598 | 1,992 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 5,340 | 240 | 1,983 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 5,323 | 276 | 1,967 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 5,453 | 312 | 1,995 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 5,622 | 357 | 2,089 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 5,618 | 344 | 2,108 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 5,649 | 351 | 2,141 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 5,703 | 366 | 2,193 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 5,697 | 300 | 2,246 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 5,926 | 407 | 2,284 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: MAT has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: MAT's current net profit margins (9.3%) are lower than last year (9.8%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: MAT's earnings have declined by 8.9% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: MAT's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: MAT had negative earnings growth (-5.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Leisure industry average (-24.1%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: Whilst MAT's Return on Equity (23.68%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/03 00:46 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Mattel, Inc. is covered by 32 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| John Staszak | Argus Research Company |
| Felicia Kantor Hendrix | Barclays |
| Alok Patel | Berenberg |