We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Mattel Valuation

Is MAT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MAT?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MAT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA8.5x
PEG Ratio0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MAT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MAT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15x
PII Polaris
13.2x7.9%US$6.5b
HAS Hasbro
20.6x17.5%US$8.5b
BC Brunswick
8.2x9.2%US$5.3b
GOLF Acushnet Holdings
17.9x1.1%US$3.1b
MAT Mattel
10.5x11.3%US$6.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the peer average (15x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MAT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Leisure Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a13.2%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the US Leisure industry average (10.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MAT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MAT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.5x
Fair PE Ratio11.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MAT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MAT ($17.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($33.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MAT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MAT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$17.88
US$26.62
+48.9%
14.0%US$33.00US$19.00n/a13
Nov ’23US$18.95
US$27.46
+44.9%
12.6%US$33.00US$21.00n/a13
Oct ’23US$18.94
US$31.29
+65.2%
16.5%US$45.00US$24.00n/a14
Sep ’23US$22.17
US$31.29
+41.1%
16.5%US$45.00US$24.00n/a14
Aug ’23US$23.16
US$31.31
+35.2%
17.1%US$45.00US$24.00n/a13
Jul ’23US$22.08
US$32.19
+45.8%
14.6%US$45.00US$26.00n/a13
Jun ’23US$24.47
US$32.32
+32.1%
14.1%US$45.00US$26.00n/a14
May ’23US$24.31
US$31.89
+31.2%
14.4%US$45.00US$26.00n/a14
Apr ’23US$22.42
US$31.50
+40.5%
14.5%US$45.00US$26.00n/a14
Mar ’23US$24.47
US$31.46
+28.6%
14.7%US$45.00US$25.00n/a14
Feb ’23US$21.36
US$27.79
+30.1%
13.7%US$38.00US$23.00n/a14
Jan ’23US$21.56
US$27.04
+25.4%
12.4%US$36.00US$23.00n/a14
Dec ’22US$21.33
US$27.04
+26.8%
12.4%US$36.00US$23.00n/a14
Nov ’22US$21.59
US$26.90
+24.6%
12.5%US$36.00US$23.00US$18.9514
Oct ’22US$18.71
US$26.53
+41.8%
10.7%US$32.00US$23.00US$18.9414
Sep ’22US$21.54
US$26.60
+23.5%
10.4%US$32.00US$23.00US$22.1714
Aug ’22US$21.72
US$25.67
+18.2%
10.1%US$32.00US$23.00US$23.1614
Jul ’22US$20.29
US$24.97
+23.1%
9.1%US$30.00US$23.00US$22.0815
Jun ’22US$21.13
US$24.97
+18.2%
9.1%US$30.00US$23.00US$24.4715
May ’22US$21.46
US$24.54
+14.4%
9.2%US$30.00US$22.00US$24.3115
Apr ’22US$20.22
US$21.67
+7.2%
14.2%US$27.00US$14.00US$22.4215
Mar ’22US$20.78
US$21.67
+4.3%
14.2%US$27.00US$14.00US$24.4715
Feb ’22US$18.28
US$18.24
-0.2%
13.6%US$21.00US$12.40US$21.3614
Jan ’22US$17.45
US$16.53
-5.3%
17.7%US$21.00US$12.00US$21.5615
Dec ’21US$15.70
US$16.17
+3.0%
16.6%US$20.00US$12.00US$21.3314
Nov ’21US$13.77
US$15.46
+12.3%
18.2%US$20.00US$12.00US$21.5914

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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