Mattel, Inc.

NasdaqGS:MAT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.0b

Mattel Valuation

Is MAT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MAT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MAT ($17.86) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($27.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MAT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MAT?

Key metric: As MAT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MAT. This is calculated by dividing MAT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MAT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11x
EarningsUS$548.27m
Market CapUS$6.00b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MAT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MAT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.5x
BC Brunswick
15.1x19.9%US$4.4b
GOLF Acushnet Holdings
22.5x8.2%US$4.2b
PII Polaris
15.8x18.0%US$3.2b
YETI YETI Holdings
16.6x7.8%US$3.4b
MAT Mattel
11x3.5%US$6.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x) compared to the peer average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MAT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Leisure Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MAT 11.0xIndustry Avg. 18.3xNo. of Companies15PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x) compared to the Global Leisure industry average (18.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MAT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MAT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11x
Fair PE Ratio14.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MAT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$17.86
US$23.96
+34.2%
9.6%US$28.00US$20.00n/a14
Dec ’25US$19.02
US$23.96
+26.0%
9.6%US$28.00US$20.00n/a14
Nov ’25US$19.91
US$23.96
+20.4%
9.6%US$28.00US$20.00n/a14
Oct ’25US$19.13
US$23.73
+24.1%
9.9%US$27.00US$20.00n/a13
Sep ’25US$18.98
US$23.52
+23.9%
11.2%US$27.00US$18.25n/a13
Aug ’25US$19.17
US$23.52
+22.7%
11.2%US$27.00US$18.25n/a13
Jul ’25US$16.22
US$23.52
+45.0%
10.1%US$27.00US$20.00n/a14
Jun ’25US$17.79
US$23.52
+32.2%
10.1%US$27.00US$20.00n/a14
May ’25US$18.08
US$23.59
+30.5%
10.0%US$27.00US$20.00n/a14
Apr ’25US$19.68
US$23.22
+18.0%
9.3%US$26.00US$20.00n/a15
Mar ’25US$19.52
US$22.95
+17.6%
10.1%US$26.00US$19.00n/a14
Feb ’25US$18.27
US$22.77
+24.6%
10.5%US$26.00US$19.00n/a13
Jan ’25US$18.88
US$23.77
+25.9%
8.8%US$26.00US$19.00n/a13
Dec ’24US$19.48
US$23.77
+22.0%
8.8%US$26.00US$19.00US$19.0213
Nov ’24US$19.33
US$23.77
+23.0%
8.8%US$26.00US$19.00US$19.9113
Oct ’24US$22.03
US$24.75
+12.3%
6.2%US$27.00US$21.00US$19.1312
Sep ’24US$22.32
US$24.55
+10.0%
5.9%US$26.00US$21.00US$18.9811
Aug ’24US$21.27
US$24.45
+15.0%
5.6%US$26.00US$21.00US$19.1711
Jul ’24US$19.54
US$22.82
+16.8%
11.0%US$26.00US$18.00US$16.2211
Jun ’24US$17.53
US$23.17
+32.2%
11.5%US$27.00US$18.00US$17.7912
May ’24US$17.63
US$23.17
+31.4%
11.5%US$27.00US$18.00US$18.0812
Apr ’24US$18.41
US$23.13
+25.6%
11.4%US$27.00US$18.00US$19.6812
Mar ’24US$17.82
US$23.54
+32.1%
11.4%US$27.00US$18.00US$19.5212
Feb ’24US$20.97
US$26.08
+24.4%
14.0%US$33.00US$19.00US$18.2713
Jan ’24US$17.84
US$26.62
+49.2%
14.0%US$33.00US$19.00US$18.8813
Dec ’23US$18.45
US$26.62
+44.3%
14.0%US$33.00US$19.00US$19.4813

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 01:33
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Mattel, Inc. is covered by 38 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Felicia Kantor HendrixBarclays