Will Modest Earnings Gains and a Completed Buyback Shift Maximus' (MMS) Capital Allocation Narrative

• In November 2025, Maximus, Inc. reported fourth quarter and full-year results showing modest year-over-year increases in sales and net income, alongside completion of a multi-year buyback totaling 8,967,470 shares for US$678.58 million since 2020.
• The company also issued fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of US$5.225 billion to US$5.425 billion, giving investors a fresh reference point against its recent earnings per share growth and sizable reduction in share count.
• We’ll now examine how Maximus’s higher earnings per share and completed multi-year buyback program influence its existing investment narrative.

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Maximus Investment Narrative Recap

To own Maximus, you need to believe that governments will keep outsourcing complex health and human services work, and that Maximus can steadily improve margins through technology-enabled delivery. The latest results and buyback completion modestly reinforce the near term earnings per share story, while the main risk still sits with contract volumes and government budgets rather than anything in this update, which does not materially change the core near term catalyst or risk profile.

The most relevant new data point is the completed repurchase of 8,967,470 shares for US$678.58 million, or about 15.01% of the company since 2020. Against a backdrop of relatively modest revenue and net income growth, this lower share count has helped lift earnings per share, which matters for investors who see Maximus’ main catalyst as gradual earnings growth supported by efficiency and digital investments rather than rapid top line expansion.

Yet this does not remove the need for investors to be aware of how dependent Maximus remains on large, volume driven government contracts and what happens if...

Read the full narrative on Maximus (it's free!)

Maximus’ narrative projects $6.1 billion revenue and $486.5 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Maximus' forecasts yield a $110.00 fair value, a 27% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Two Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Maximus range from US$110 to about US$154.63, reflecting wide differences in expectations. As you weigh those views, remember that Maximus’ reliance on large government contracts and budget decisions can have a significant impact on how its future performance lines up with any of these numbers.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Maximus - why the stock might be worth just $110.00!

Build Your Own Maximus Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Maximus research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Maximus research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Maximus' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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