A Fresh Look at CoreCivic’s Valuation Following Major ICE Contract Wins and Facility Reactivations

CoreCivic has landed a series of major long-term contracts with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which has jumpstarted operations at previously idle facilities. These deals expand capacity and open up significant new, recurring revenue streams for the company.

See our latest analysis for CoreCivic.

Solid contract wins have captured investor attention, but CoreCivic’s share price has not yet reflected the scale of these changes. The stock’s latest close was $19.48, and while the 1-year total shareholder return just edged into positive territory, longer-term returns have also been modest. Momentum appears steadier than exciting. However, these new deals could set the stage for a more meaningful revival if results start to flow through.

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With so many major contracts now in play and a hefty discount to analyst price targets, is CoreCivic an undervalued opportunity hiding in plain sight, or are investors already factoring in these growth catalysts?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.8% Undervalued

With CoreCivic closing at $19.48 and a narrative fair value set at $29.88, the gap between expectations and market pricing has rarely been wider. This sets the stage for game-changing drivers that could reshape how investors judge the company’s future.

The unprecedented increase in mandatory government funding for federal detention and border security (notably, $75 billion for ICE and multi-year appropriations through 2029) is catalyzing rapid contracting activity, reactivation of idle facilities, and will significantly boost CoreCivic's recurring revenue and occupancy rates in future quarters.

Read the complete narrative.

Is CoreCivic’s narrative built entirely on future government cash infusions, or is there more to the story? The key drivers include bold expansion of margins, contract-fueled revenue upgrades, and surprisingly aggressive share reduction. But which number really moves the needle on this $10-per-share upside?

Result: Fair Value of $29.88 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, CoreCivic’s growth remains vulnerable to shifting federal policies and unforeseen contract setbacks. Either of these factors could quickly reshape expectations for future gains.

Find out about the key risks to this CoreCivic narrative.

Build Your Own CoreCivic Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the details yourself, it takes less than three minutes to build your own angle. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your CoreCivic research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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