CACI International’s Valuation: Assessing the Impact of Its New Five-Year Air Force Contract and Upgraded Forecasts

CACI International has just landed a significant five-year contract with the Department of the Air Force, positioning itself at the center of modernizing secure defense network services. This win highlights CACI’s growing influence within the government technology sector.

See our latest analysis for CACI International.

This latest Air Force contract builds on a steady stream of wins for CACI International, who also recently landed a five-year deal with the Department of Homeland Security. Thanks to momentum from these government contracts and rising earnings forecasts, CACI’s long-term total shareholder return now tops 97% over three years. Meanwhile, shorter-term share price gains have been modest, suggesting markets may be recalibrating risk versus growth potential.

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With shares modestly off their highs despite strong earnings revisions and ongoing government wins, the real question for investors is whether CACI International is trading at a rare discount or if the market has already factored in its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.8% Undervalued

With CACI International's narrative-implied fair value of $569.42 significantly above its last close at $519.07, this view paints a bullish picture. The difference invites a closer look at the convictions fueling this upside.

Robust and growing government funding in national security, border protection, and defense technology, particularly from recent legislative acts (like the $150B+ for defense and $170B for border security), is providing a favorable backdrop and increasing CACI's addressable market, supporting sustained revenue growth and backlog expansion. Accelerated adoption of advanced technologies, such as software-defined platforms, cyber solutions, and enterprise software modernization, is driving a shift in federal procurement toward higher-value, tech-enabled contracts. In this environment, CACI's existing leadership, strong track record, and investments ahead of customer need enable higher win rates, contract stickiness, and margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to peek under the hood of this premium valuation? The fair value is built on bold earnings, revenue surge forecasts, and profit margin upgrades. Which one unlocks the most upside? Uncover the narrative’s secret engine and see what puts CACI ahead of the pack in analyst eyes.

Result: Fair Value of $569.42 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, any cuts to U.S. government spending or intensifying competition for high-value contracts could quickly change the outlook and challenge these growth assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this CACI International narrative.

Build Your Own CACI International Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig into the numbers on your own terms, you can craft a personalized narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your CACI International research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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