LanzaTech Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:LNZA) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates

It's shaping up to be a tough period for LanzaTech Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:LNZA), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 45% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of US$0.29. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for LanzaTech Global

After the latest results, the four analysts covering LanzaTech Global are now predicting revenues of US$136.0m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 134% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 52% to US$0.32. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$177.4m and losses of US$0.22 per share in 2025. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

The consensus price target fell 11% to US$4.19, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on LanzaTech Global, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$6.00 and the most bearish at US$2.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that LanzaTech Global's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 98% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 33% p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that LanzaTech Global is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at LanzaTech Global. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of LanzaTech Global's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple LanzaTech Global analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for LanzaTech Global that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.