Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About ICF International, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICFI)?

ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI) has had a rough three months with its share price down 32%. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to ICF International's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for ICF International

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for ICF International is:

11% = US$108m ÷ US$976m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.11.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

ICF International's Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

To start with, ICF International's ROE looks acceptable. Yet, the fact that the company's ROE is lower than the industry average of 19% does temper our expectations. Although, we can see that ICF International saw a modest net income growth of 8.0% over the past five years. So, there might be other aspects that are positively influencing earnings growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently. However, not to forget, the company does have a decent ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. So this also provides some context to the earnings growth seen by the company.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that ICF International's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 11% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about ICF International's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is ICF International Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

ICF International has a low three-year median payout ratio of 15%, meaning that the company retains the remaining 85% of its profits. This suggests that the management is reinvesting most of the profits to grow the business.

Additionally, ICF International has paid dividends over a period of seven years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that ICF International certainly does have some positive factors to consider. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a moderate rate of return, that has resulted in a respectable growth in its earnings. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.