Aqua Metals (NASDAQ:AQMS) Is In A Good Position To Deliver On Growth Plans

Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. By way of example, Aqua Metals (NASDAQ:AQMS) has seen its share price rise 127% over the last year, delighting many shareholders. But the harsh reality is that very many loss making companies burn through all their cash and go bankrupt.

So notwithstanding the buoyant share price, we think it's well worth asking whether Aqua Metals' cash burn is too risky. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. We'll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.

View our latest analysis for Aqua Metals

How Long Is Aqua Metals' Cash Runway?

You can calculate a company's cash runway by dividing the amount of cash it has by the rate at which it is spending that cash. In June 2021, Aqua Metals had US$11m in cash, and was debt-free. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through US$10.0m. That means it had a cash runway of around 13 months as of June 2021. That's not too bad, but it's fair to say the end of the cash runway is in sight, unless cash burn reduces drastically. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

How Is Aqua Metals' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Whilst it's great to see that Aqua Metals has already begun generating revenue from operations, last year it only produced US$90k, so we don't think it is generating significant revenue, at this point. As a result, we think it's a bit early to focus on the revenue growth, so we'll limit ourselves to looking at how the cash burn is changing over time. The 70% reduction in its cash burn over the last twelve months may be good for protecting the balance sheet but it hardly points to imminent growth. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Hard Would It Be For Aqua Metals To Raise More Cash For Growth?

While we're comforted by the recent reduction evident from our analysis of Aqua Metals' cash burn, it is still worth considering how easily the company could raise more funds, if it wanted to accelerate spending to drive growth. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.

Since it has a market capitalisation of US$158m, Aqua Metals' US$10.0m in cash burn equates to about 6.3% of its market value. Given that is a rather small percentage, it would probably be really easy for the company to fund another year's growth by issuing some new shares to investors, or even by taking out a loan.

Is Aqua Metals' Cash Burn A Worry?

Aqua Metals appears to be in pretty good health when it comes to its cash burn situation. One the one hand we have its solid cash burn relative to its market cap, while on the other it can also boast very strong cash burn reduction. While we're the kind of investors who are always a bit concerned about the risks involved with cash burning companies, the metrics we have discussed in this article leave us relatively comfortable about Aqua Metals' situation. Separately, we looked at different risks affecting the company and spotted 3 warning signs for Aqua Metals (of which 2 are a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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