For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it currently lacks a track record of revenue and profit. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.
In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like Trinity Industries (NYSE:TRN), which has not only revenues, but also profits. Even if this company is fairly valued by the market, investors would agree that generating consistent profits will continue to provide Trinity Industries with the means to add long-term value to shareholders.
We've discovered 5 warning signs about Trinity Industries. View them for free.Trinity Industries' Earnings Per Share Are Growing
If a company can keep growing earnings per share (EPS) long enough, its share price should eventually follow. That makes EPS growth an attractive quality for any company. To the delight of shareholders, Trinity Industries has achieved impressive annual EPS growth of 51%, compound, over the last three years. While that sort of growth rate isn't sustainable for long, it certainly catches the eye of prospective investors.
One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. We note that while EBIT margins have improved from 12% to 14%, the company has actually reported a fall in revenue by 9.4%. That's not a good look.
The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. For finer detail, click on the image.
Check out our latest analysis for Trinity Industries
You don't drive with your eyes on the rear-view mirror, so you might be more interested in this free report showing analyst forecasts for Trinity Industries' future profits.
Are Trinity Industries Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?
It's a necessity that company leaders act in the best interest of shareholders and so insider investment always comes as a reassurance to the market. Shareholders will be pleased by the fact that insiders own Trinity Industries shares worth a considerable sum. Indeed, they hold US$27m worth of its stock. That shows significant buy-in, and may indicate conviction in the business strategy. Despite being just 1.3% of the company, the value of that investment is enough to show insiders have plenty riding on the venture.
Is Trinity Industries Worth Keeping An Eye On?
Trinity Industries' earnings per share growth have been climbing higher at an appreciable rate. That EPS growth certainly is attention grabbing, and the large insider ownership only serves to further stoke our interest. At times fast EPS growth is a sign the business has reached an inflection point, so there's a potential opportunity to be had here. So at the surface level, Trinity Industries is worth putting on your watchlist; after all, shareholders do well when the market underestimates fast growing companies. You still need to take note of risks, for example - Trinity Industries has 5 warning signs (and 2 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
There's always the possibility of doing well buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares. But for those who consider these important metrics, we encourage you to check out companies that do have those features. You can access a tailored list of companies which have demonstrated growth backed by significant insider holdings.
Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Trinity Industries might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.