The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) Just Released Its First-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$1.2b arriving 3.2% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$1.46, 3.0% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Timken

Following last week's earnings report, Timken's eleven analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$4.61b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 3.6% to US$5.52. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.59b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.51 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$90.83. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Timken analyst has a price target of US$102 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$83.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.4% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.6% per year. It's pretty clear that Timken's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Timken going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Timken that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.