The Timken Company

NYSE:TKR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.8b

Timken Valuation

Is TKR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TKR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$105.14
Fair Value
20.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TKR ($83.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($105.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TKR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TKR?

Key metric: As TKR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TKR. This is calculated by dividing TKR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TKR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.5x
EarningsUS$352.70m
Market CapUS$5.83b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TKR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TKR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average32.4x
GTES Gates Industrial
29.6x27.0%US$5.8b
JBTM JBT Marel
44.6x32.2%US$6.4b
MWA Mueller Water Products
30.7x19.7%US$4.2b
WTS Watts Water Technologies
24.5x6.6%US$7.1b
TKR Timken
16.5x11.8%US$5.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TKR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the peer average (32.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TKR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AIRJ AirJoule Technologies
2xn/aUS$444.51m
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group
2.4x-37.8%US$66.64m
FATH Fathom Digital Manufacturing
2.6xn/aUS$35.24m
ZEVY Lightning eMotors
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
TKR 16.5xIndustry Avg. 23.8xNo. of Companies13PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TKR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (23.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TKR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TKR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.5x
Fair PE Ratio21.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TKR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TKR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$83.15
US$90.10
+8.4%
7.1%US$97.00US$77.00n/a10
Feb ’26US$80.27
US$87.91
+9.5%
9.0%US$99.00US$73.00n/a11
Jan ’26US$71.37
US$89.64
+25.6%
7.5%US$99.00US$73.00n/a11
Dec ’25US$77.45
US$87.00
+12.3%
8.1%US$99.00US$73.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$83.15
US$92.27
+11.0%
7.5%US$104.00US$85.00n/a11
Oct ’25US$83.88
US$92.30
+10.0%
8.2%US$104.00US$83.00n/a10
Sep ’25US$84.53
US$92.70
+9.7%
8.1%US$104.00US$83.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$84.50
US$93.33
+10.5%
7.7%US$104.00US$83.00n/a12
Jul ’25US$79.00
US$93.25
+18.0%
7.7%US$104.00US$83.00n/a12
Jun ’25US$86.89
US$93.25
+7.3%
7.7%US$104.00US$83.00n/a12
May ’25US$87.49
US$90.83
+3.8%
7.0%US$102.00US$83.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$87.85
US$86.50
-1.5%
8.2%US$100.00US$74.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$84.59
US$86.08
+1.8%
7.4%US$95.00US$74.00n/a12
Feb ’25US$85.14
US$84.25
-1.0%
9.4%US$97.00US$71.00US$80.2712
Jan ’25US$80.15
US$87.10
+8.7%
15.7%US$120.00US$67.00US$71.3710
Dec ’24US$74.66
US$89.20
+19.5%
16.4%US$120.00US$67.00US$77.4510
Nov ’24US$68.79
US$92.40
+34.3%
14.6%US$120.00US$74.00US$83.1510
Oct ’24US$73.49
US$96.70
+31.6%
11.3%US$120.00US$82.00US$83.8810
Sep ’24US$78.43
US$96.70
+23.3%
11.3%US$120.00US$82.00US$84.5310
Aug ’24US$93.77
US$98.70
+5.3%
10.5%US$120.00US$82.00US$84.5010
Jul ’24US$91.53
US$95.80
+4.7%
11.6%US$120.00US$82.00US$79.0010
Jun ’24US$72.94
US$94.64
+29.7%
12.0%US$122.00US$82.00US$86.8911
May ’24US$77.43
US$95.45
+23.3%
12.0%US$122.00US$80.00US$87.4911
Apr ’24US$81.72
US$96.18
+17.7%
11.2%US$122.00US$79.00US$87.8511
Mar ’24US$86.26
US$95.27
+10.4%
11.0%US$122.00US$79.00US$84.5911
Feb ’24US$83.80
US$85.18
+1.6%
15.3%US$122.00US$70.00US$85.1411
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts
US$90.10
Fair Value
7.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/16 10:28
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/14 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The Timken Company is covered by 25 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Holden LewisBB&T Capital Markets
Michael FenigerBofA Global Research
Kevin KirkebyCFRA Equity Research