Timken Valuation

Is TKR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TKR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TKR ($84.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($145.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TKR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TKR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TKR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA9x
PEG Ratio2.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TKR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TKR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.6x
MLI Mueller Industries
9.7xn/aUS$5.9b
ESAB ESAB
30.2x11.5%US$6.5b
WTS Watts Water Technologies
25.6x7.7%US$6.7b
FLS Flowserve
32.9x26.7%US$6.1b
TKR Timken
15.1x6.5%US$5.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TKR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the peer average (24.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TKR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TKR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (23.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TKR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TKR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.1x
Fair PE Ratio19.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TKR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TKR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$84.80
US$86.50
+2.0%
8.2%US$100.00US$74.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$87.85
US$86.50
-1.5%
8.2%US$100.00US$74.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$84.59
US$86.08
+1.8%
7.4%US$95.00US$74.00n/a12
Feb ’25US$85.14
US$84.25
-1.0%
9.4%US$97.00US$71.00n/a12
Jan ’25US$80.15
US$87.10
+8.7%
15.7%US$120.00US$67.00n/a10
Dec ’24US$74.66
US$89.20
+19.5%
16.4%US$120.00US$67.00n/a10
Nov ’24US$68.79
US$92.40
+34.3%
14.6%US$120.00US$74.00n/a10
Oct ’24US$73.49
US$96.70
+31.6%
11.3%US$120.00US$82.00n/a10
Sep ’24US$78.43
US$96.70
+23.3%
11.3%US$120.00US$82.00n/a10
Aug ’24US$93.77
US$98.70
+5.3%
10.5%US$120.00US$82.00n/a10
Jul ’24US$91.53
US$95.80
+4.7%
11.6%US$120.00US$82.00n/a10
Jun ’24US$72.94
US$94.64
+29.7%
12.0%US$122.00US$82.00n/a11
May ’24US$77.43
US$95.45
+23.3%
12.0%US$122.00US$80.00n/a11
Apr ’24US$81.72
US$96.18
+17.7%
11.2%US$122.00US$79.00US$87.8511
Mar ’24US$86.26
US$95.27
+10.4%
11.0%US$122.00US$79.00US$84.5911
Feb ’24US$83.80
US$85.18
+1.6%
15.3%US$122.00US$70.00US$85.1411
Jan ’24US$70.67
US$81.82
+15.8%
11.5%US$105.00US$70.00US$80.1511
Dec ’23US$74.67
US$79.55
+6.5%
13.7%US$105.00US$62.00US$74.6611
Nov ’23US$72.19
US$78.27
+8.4%
13.5%US$105.00US$62.00US$68.7911
Oct ’23US$59.04
US$76.00
+28.7%
12.8%US$100.00US$62.00US$73.4911
Sep ’23US$62.79
US$75.73
+20.6%
12.7%US$100.00US$62.00US$78.4311
Aug ’23US$64.17
US$75.49
+17.6%
12.7%US$100.00US$62.00US$93.7711
Jul ’23US$53.50
US$75.68
+41.4%
13.4%US$98.00US$59.00US$91.5311
Jun ’23US$59.92
US$76.13
+27.1%
12.6%US$98.00US$62.00US$72.9411
May ’23US$57.64
US$80.00
+38.8%
12.7%US$98.00US$64.00US$77.4311
Apr ’23US$59.63
US$84.30
+41.4%
17.2%US$122.00US$72.00US$81.7210

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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