Timken Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 1/6
Timken's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -3.5%, while the Machinery industry saw earnings growing at 8% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 3.3% per year. Timken's return on equity is 9.9%, and it has net margins of 6.6%.
Key information
-3.55%
Earnings growth rate
-1.62%
EPS growth rate
| Machinery Industry Growth | 8.77% |
| Revenue growth rate | 3.27% |
| Return on equity | 9.85% |
| Net Margin | 6.60% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 30
TKR: Future Returns Will Rely On Humanoid Robotics Execution Risk
Timken's analyst fair value estimate has been lifted from $100 to $120 as analysts respond to a series of higher Street price targets and increased confidence in the company's medium term earnings and margin objectives. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Timken reflects a mix of optimism around the company’s medium term goals and a more cautious undercurrent focused on valuation, execution, and the credibility of those targets.Analysis Article • Jun 17
Timken (TKR) Stock Could Be 13% Undervalued After Its Strong Earnings Run
Timken (TKR) stock has been drawing attention after a series of positive earnings surprises over the last four quarters, with analyst optimism helping underpin recent momentum and a strong year to date share performance. See our latest analysis for Timken. At a share price of $140.28, Timken has seen strong momentum build recently, with a 30 day share price return of 22.53%, a 90 day share price return of 42.81%, and a 1 year total shareholder return of 102.24%. If Timken's recent run has you...
Narrative Update • Jun 16
TKR: Elevate To Outperform Plan And 80 20 Model Will Shape 2028 Earnings
Timken's updated analyst price target rises from $108.08 to $136.55, reflecting analysts' broader wave of higher Street targets around $147 to $150. These targets are tied to Timken's 2028 framework, Elevate to Outperform plan, and confidence in the company's margin and earnings objectives.
Narrative Update • Jun 01
TKR: Elevate To Outperform And Secular End Markets Will Reshape Earnings Power
Timken's fair value estimate is updated from $130.00 to $158.00 as analysts factor in higher projected revenue growth, improved profit margins, and support from its Elevate to Outperform strategy, as well as exposure to areas such as defense, power and electrification, automation, and humanoids that underpin raised price targets across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a clear shift toward a more constructive view on Timken, with several high profile firms raising fair value estimates and, in some cases, upgrading ratings as they reassess the company's execution and growth outlook.Seeking Alpha • May 27
The Timken Company: A Real Sense Of Urgency Is Driving Shares Here
Summary The Timken Company has surged 35% to $127 on strong momentum, ambitious 2028 targets, and accretive portfolio actions. Timken's 2028 guidance calls for mid-single-digit sales CAGR and over 50% earnings growth, driven by significant margin expansion. The recent divestiture of the loss-making belt business is expected to immediately boost industrial motion segment margins by 2 points. I remain impressed by management’s renewed focus on value creation but see no need to chase shares after the rapid rally. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • May 08
The Timken Company Beat Revenue Forecasts By 5.9%: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
The Timken Company ( NYSE:TKR ) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. The company beat...Narrative Update • Apr 28
TKR: Future Returns Will Depend On Buybacks And Humanoid Robotics Capital Allocation
Timken's fair value estimate has increased to $100 from $90 as analysts incorporate updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly adjusted discount rate. Recent price target increases across several firms also highlight ongoing debate around its future P/E levels.Narrative Update • Apr 14
TKR: Disciplined Capital Returns And Smaller Cap Leadership Will Reshape Future Earnings Power
Analysts have raised their average price targets on Timken in a series of $3 to $22 moves, reflecting updated views on its earnings power and appropriate P/E, while fair value in this framework remains at $130. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Timken shows a cluster of price target increases across multiple firms, alongside both upgrades and downgrades.Narrative Update • Mar 31
TKR: Future Returns Will Hinge On Buybacks And Humanoid Robotics Acquisitions
Analysts have raised Timken's fair value estimate to $90.00 from $71.46, citing a series of recent price target increases that reflect expectations for stronger revenue growth, a higher assumed future P/E multiple, and updated views on the company's profit margin profile. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Timken shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms revisiting their price targets and ratings as they reassess the company’s execution and risk profile.Narrative Update • Mar 17
TKR: Disciplined Smaller Cap Leader And Buybacks Will Reshape Earnings Power
Timken's updated fair value estimate edges up to $130.00, reflecting analysts' higher price targets in the $100 to $105 range and their view that disciplined smaller cap industrial operators remain better positioned for long term growth despite ongoing macro uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has clustered around higher valuation marks for Timken, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets into the low US$100s.Narrative Update • Mar 03
TKR: Execution Discipline And Portfolio Evolution Will Shape 2026 Earnings And Capital Deployment
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Timken to $108.08 from $92.03, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate and future P/E that align with the recent series of higher Street price targets. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Timken has centered on a series of higher price targets and one upgrade, which together frame how analysts are thinking about the company’s execution, growth prospects and valuation support.Narrative Update • Feb 17
TKR: New Leadership And 80 20 Focus Will Reshape Earnings Power
Analysts have raised their price targets on Timken, and our updated fair value estimate now stands at $129.38. This figure is supported by research that highlights adjustments in expected revenue growth, profitability, discount rate assumptions, and an increased future P/E multiple.Analysis Article • Feb 07
Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) Price Target To US$97.18
It's been a pretty great week for The Timken Company ( NYSE:TKR ) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to US$106...Narrative Update • Feb 02
TKR: 80/20 Execution And Portfolio Evolution Will Shape 2026 Earnings Resilience
Analysts have nudged their price expectations for Timken higher, with our fair value estimate rising by about $1 to $92.03 per share as they factor in updated targets from several firms and slightly adjusted assumptions for the discount rate, long term revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has generally reflected a more constructive stance on Timken, with several firms lifting their price targets after meetings with the new leadership team and revisiting their long term assumptions.Narrative Update • Jan 19
TKR: 80/20 Execution And 2026 Demand Outlook Will Shape Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Timken to about $90.76 from $88.49, citing updated assumptions around slightly higher revenue growth, modestly stronger profit margins, and a lower future P/E. They view this as consistent with the recent series of price target increases from firms that have raised their views on the stock.Narrative Update • Jan 05
TKR: 80/20 Execution And 2026 Demand Outlook Will Drive Fairly Valued Setup
Narrative update on Timken Analysts have nudged their price targets on Timken higher, with recent moves such as US$83 to US$88 and US$88 to US$90. They cite discussions with management around revised 80/20-focused priorities, a Q3 earnings beat with slightly better than expected organic growth, and potential for both top and bottom line improvement under a healthier industrial demand backdrop.Analysis Article • Jan 01
Does Timken (NYSE:TKR) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Narrative Update • Dec 16
TKR: New Leadership And 80/20 Focus Will Shape Performance Amid Fair Backdrop
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Timken slightly higher to approximately $88.49 from about $87.85. This reflects increased confidence in management's strategy, a healthier industrial demand backdrop, and the potential for both top and bottom line outperformance supported by recent price target increases into the $88 to $90 range.Narrative Update • Dec 02
TKR: New Executive Team Will Shape Performance Amid Fair Valuation
Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Timken, raising it from $87.41 to $87.85. This change reflects optimism around new management's strategy and a more favorable outlook for growth and valuation.Narrative Update • Nov 18
TKR: Positive Earnings Momentum And New Leadership Will Drive Shares Higher
Timken's analyst price target has increased from $85.87 to $87.41, as analysts cite better than expected organic growth and updated management guidance in their rationale for the adjustment. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst activity reflects both optimism and caution following Timken’s earnings update and revised management guidance.Narrative Update • Nov 03
TKR: Execution And Leadership Changes Will Shape Measured Outlook Into 2025
Timken’s analyst price target has been revised higher, increasing by nearly $2 to reflect updated expectations for organic growth and sector trends, according to analysts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Timken reflects a mix of optimism and caution regarding the company's growth outlook, profitability, and execution capabilities.Narrative Update • Sep 26
Pricing Adjustments And Renewables In China Will Drive Success
Timken’s consensus price target was modestly raised to $84.15 as analysts highlighted reduced cyclicality, sector-wide re-ratings after Q2 earnings, and potential upward earnings revisions, though some remain cautious pending execution under new leadership. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlighted Timken's reduced cyclicality and its reputation as a high-quality engineering franchise.Analysis Article • Sep 24
Does Timken (NYSE:TKR) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Narrative Update • Sep 11
Pricing Adjustments And Renewables In China Will Drive Success
Timken’s fair value estimate was revised slightly lower as both the future P/E and consensus revenue growth forecasts remained effectively unchanged, resulting in a marginal decrease in the consensus price target from $83.95 to $82.79. What's in the News Lucian Boldea appointed CEO and Board member, bringing extensive industry experience from Honeywell and Eastman Chemical, succeeding interim CEO Richard G.Analysis Article • Jul 15
The Timken Company's (NYSE:TKR) Shares Not Telling The Full Story
The Timken Company's ( NYSE:TKR ) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16.5x might make it look like a buy right now...Seeking Alpha • Apr 21
The Timken Company: In A Bad Way, But Not Bereft Of Silver Linings
Summary The Timken Company has underperformed this year, with a YTD decline of 14%, worse than its mid-cap peers and other industrial stocks. Timken's Q1 results, to be announced on April 30, will be the first under interim CEO Richard Kyle, who previously enjoyed a decade-long stint until September 2024. Expectations are on the low side, even as Q1 end-market trends look particularly weak. TKR's forward P/E valuations look cheap, and it could have its best FCF year in four years. TKR is in the midst of strong bearish momentum, but the risk-reward on the long-term charts looks more appealing now. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Timken makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 4,673 | 308 | 769 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 4,582 | 288 | 753 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 4,544 | 297 | 753 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 4,514 | 310 | 756 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 4,523 | 328 | 750 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 4,573 | 353 | 756 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 4,591 | 340 | 760 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 4,607 | 346 | 749 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 4,697 | 375 | 749 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 4,769 | 394 | 744 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 4,760 | 433 | 702 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 4,754 | 432 | 680 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 4,635 | 412 | 659 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 4,497 | 407 | 625 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 4,422 | 373 | 609 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 4,323 | 374 | 590 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 4,232 | 374 | 574 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 4,133 | 369 | 562 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 4,017 | 359 | 564 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 3,875 | 360 | 541 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 3,615 | 317 | 510 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 3,513 | 285 | 520 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 3,518 | 345 | 524 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 3,537 | 320 | 569 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 3,734 | 351 | 610 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 3,790 | 362 | 613 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 3,804 | 309 | 631 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 3,771 | 316 | 613 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 3,677 | 315 | 593 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 3,581 | 303 | 574 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 3,449 | 272 | 578 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 3,339 | 254 | 567 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 3,183 | 245 | 550 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 3,004 | 203 | 523 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 2,881 | 167 | 515 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 2,767 | 147 | 488 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 2,690 | 113 | 475 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 2,670 | 141 | 510 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 2,729 | 112 | 450 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 2,779 | 142 | 464 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 2,834 | 130 | 482 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 2,872 | 189 | 458 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 2,920 | 6 | 507 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: TKR has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: TKR's current net profit margins (6.6%) are lower than last year (7.2%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: TKR's earnings have declined by 3.5% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: TKR's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: TKR had negative earnings growth (-5.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Machinery industry average (2.6%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: TKR's Return on Equity (9.9%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/09 21:50 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/09 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
The Timken Company is covered by 21 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Michael Feniger | BofA Global Research |
| Kyle Menges | Citigroup Inc |
| George Godfrey | CL King & Associates, Inc. |