Earnings Beat: Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a sad week for Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:THR), who've watched their investment drop 12% to US$26.48 in the week since the company reported its yearly result. Thermon Group Holdings reported US$498m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.57 beat expectations, being 5.0% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the four analysts covering Thermon Group Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$523.4m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a modest 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 7.4% to US$1.50 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$536.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.70 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Thermon Group Holdings

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$36.00, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Thermon Group Holdings' valuation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Thermon Group Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Thermon Group Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Thermon Group Holdings. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$36.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Thermon Group Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of Thermon Group Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think Thermon Group Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.