Redwire (RDW): Reassessing Valuation After Strong Q3 Growth but Disappointing Guidance and Missed Revenue Forecasts

Redwire (RDW) just posted Q3 results that on the surface look upbeat, with revenue jumping roughly 51% year over year, but the stock slipped after both the quarter and full-year guidance underwhelmed investors.

See our latest analysis for Redwire.

At around $6.39, Redwire’s recent 1 day and 7 day share price rebound contrasts sharply with a steep negative year to date share price return. Even so, the 3 year total shareholder return remains firmly positive, a sign that long term believers are still ahead despite fading near term momentum.

If this latest move in space infrastructure has your attention, it could be worth scanning aerospace and defense stocks to see which other names are quietly building momentum in the background.

With rapid top line growth but weak guidance, a sharp discount to analyst targets and a history of missed promises, is Redwire an overlooked turnaround story, or has the market correctly priced in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 51.7% Undervalued

At a last close of $6.39 versus a most popular narrative fair value of $13.22, Redwire is framed as a deep discount with aggressive upside expectations.

The rapid proliferation of commercial satellites and upcoming public/private low Earth orbit projects continues to build demand for Redwire's advanced in-space manufacturing, deployable structures, and subsystems, supporting multi-year visibility on high-margin product sales and recurring earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see the math behind this bold upside call? The narrative leans on rapid top line expansion, rising margins, and a future profit multiple usually reserved for market darlings. Curious how those moving parts combine into such a rich fair value estimate? Dive into the full story to unpack the assumptions driving this pricing power view.

Result: Fair Value of $13.22 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent government contract delays and cost overruns on complex fixed price projects could quickly derail the upbeat growth and valuation narrative around Redwire.

Find out about the key risks to this Redwire narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Flash a Different Signal

While the narrative fair value paints Redwire as deeply undervalued, the market’s own yardsticks tell a different story. At 3.6 times sales, the stock trades richer than both US Aerospace and Defense peers at 3 times and its 1.7 fair ratio, which hints at valuation risk if growth stumbles. Is the discount real, or already spent?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Redwire Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to dig into the details yourself, you can build a custom Redwire view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Redwire research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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