Earnings Beat: Oshkosh Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

A week ago, Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE:OSK) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.2% to hit US$2.5b. Oshkosh also reported a statutory profit of US$2.71, which was an impressive 24% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Oshkosh after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Oshkosh

Following the latest results, Oshkosh's 16 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$10.6b in 2024. This would be a credible 7.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.0% to US$10.96. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$10.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.07 in 2024. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$129, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Oshkosh at US$158 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$107. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Oshkosh's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.7% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.0% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Oshkosh is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Oshkosh's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Oshkosh analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Oshkosh (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.