Is Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) Potentially Undervalued?

While Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NYSE over the last few months. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Let’s examine Mueller Water Products’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

View our latest analysis for Mueller Water Products

What is Mueller Water Products worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 8.3% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Mueller Water Products today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $14.23, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Mueller Water Products’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

Can we expect growth from Mueller Water Products?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Mueller Water Products' earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 54%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? MWA’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on MWA, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Mueller Water Products you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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