Moog (MOG.A): Reassessing Valuation After a Strong Multi‑Year Share Price Run

Moog (MOG.A) has quietly rewarded patient shareholders, with the stock up about 21% this year and roughly 19% over the past 3 years, outpacing many industrial and defense peers.

See our latest analysis for Moog.

That kind of steady 30 day share price return, combined with a powerful multi year total shareholder return, suggests momentum is building as investors reassess Moog's growth prospects and defense exposure at its current 239.2 dollar share price.

If Moog's run has you rethinking the whole defense and aerospace theme, this could be a good time to explore aerospace and defense stocks for other potential ideas.

With shares now trading just below analyst targets yet still showing a sizable intrinsic value gap, the key question is whether Moog remains mispriced or if the market is already factoring in the next leg of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 1.6% Undervalued

Moog's most followed narrative pegs fair value close to 243 dollars, just above the latest 239.2 dollar close, framing a narrow but meaningful upside.

Moog is positioned to benefit from a sustained increase in global defense spending, with significant order backlog and direct exposure to U.S., NATO, and Indo-Pacific modernization programs, which is likely to drive multi-year revenue growth and increased earnings stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady, mid single digit revenue growth, expanding margins, and a richer future earnings multiple combine to justify that fair value? The narrative leans on ambitious earnings forecasts, disciplined discounting, and a surprisingly confident multi year outlook. Want to see exactly which assumptions make the upside case hold together?

Result: Fair Value of $243 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent tariff pressure and weaker than expected free cash flow conversion could quickly challenge the upside case and force a valuation reset.

Find out about the key risks to this Moog narrative.

Build Your Own Moog Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a tailored Moog view in just minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Moog research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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