Earnings Miss: Janus International Group, Inc. Missed EPS By 61% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Janus International Group, Inc. (NYSE:JBI), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$230m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 61%, coming in at just US$0.08 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Janus International Group

Taking into account the latest results, the six analysts covering Janus International Group provided consensus estimates of US$895.3m revenue in 2025, which would reflect an uneasy 10% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 41% to US$0.44 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$955.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.85 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 25% to US$9.90, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Janus International Group at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.50. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.2% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.5% per year. It's pretty clear that Janus International Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Janus International Group. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Janus International Group's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Janus International Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Janus International Group (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.