Earnings Not Telling The Story For Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE:ITW)

Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s (NYSE:ITW) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 23.4x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 17x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Recent times have been pleasing for Illinois Tool Works as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Illinois Tool Works

Keen to find out how analysts think Illinois Tool Works' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Illinois Tool Works' Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Illinois Tool Works' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 47% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its uninspiring short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 6.2% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 10% per year growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's alarming that Illinois Tool Works' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Illinois Tool Works currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with Illinois Tool Works.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Illinois Tool Works. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com