Stock Analysis

Howmet Aerospace's (NYSE:HWM) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

NYSE:HWM
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We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. Don't believe it? Then look at the Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:HWM) share price. It's 922% higher than it was five years ago. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. It's also good to see the share price up 19% over the last quarter. It really delights us to see such great share price performance for investors.

In light of the stock dropping 4.7% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Howmet Aerospace achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 59% per year. This EPS growth is remarkably close to the 59% average annual increase in the share price. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:HWM Earnings Per Share Growth March 31st 2025

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Howmet Aerospace's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

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What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Howmet Aerospace, it has a TSR of 934% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Howmet Aerospace has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 97% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 60% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Howmet Aerospace you should know about.

But note: Howmet Aerospace may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Howmet Aerospace might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About NYSE:HWM

Howmet Aerospace

Provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally.

Outstanding track record with reasonable growth potential.

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