Does Recent Stock Surge and Hydrogen Deal Mean More Upside for Chart Industries in 2025?

Deciding what to do with Chart Industries stock can feel like being at a crossroads. On one hand, the company’s share price has seen a strong run over the past year, climbing 59.2% and rewarding patient investors with impressive gains over the last five years. The stock is up 174.6%. But in the past week and month, the price has been nearly flat, edging up just 0.4% and 0.6%, making some investors wonder if there is still room to grow or if the easy money has already been made.

Some of this strength is tied to broad market enthusiasm for infrastructure and energy transition plays, sectors where Chart Industries is increasingly relevant. Expectations around growth, combined with increased attention from institutional investors, have shifted how the market perceives risk and opportunity in this stock. That helps explain the big moves over the longer term, even if things feel a bit quieter lately.

If you are sizing up a new investment or thinking about trimming your position, valuation is likely top of mind right now. Out of six key valuation checks, Chart Industries is considered undervalued in just two, giving it a modest valuation score of 2. That may sound underwhelming, but traditional metrics often do not tell the whole story. Up next, we will explore why these scores matter, how they are calculated, and what they might be missing about Chart’s unique position. Do not worry, though; we will also explore an even more insightful way to judge its value by the end of the article.

Chart Industries scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Chart Industries Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's intrinsic value by projecting its expected future cash flows and discounting them back to today's dollars. This approach aims to determine the present value of all future earnings.

For Chart Industries, the current Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at $427.6 million. Analyst forecasts provide FCF projections for the next five years. After this period, Simply Wall St extends the projection to ten years using extrapolated growth rates. For example, the FCF is estimated to rise to $749 million by 2029 and to exceed $800 million by 2034. These figures combine near-term analyst estimates with long-term systematic growth assumptions.

By discounting all future FCFs to the present, Chart Industries' estimated intrinsic share value using this DCF model is $244.05. Compared to the current stock price, this represents a 17.8% discount, suggesting the shares may be undervalued by a notable margin.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Chart Industries.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Chart Industries is undervalued by 17.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Chart Industries Price vs Earnings (P/E Ratio)

The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is a useful valuation metric for profitable companies because it directly connects the firm's market value to its current earnings. For companies with steady profits, this ratio can help investors gauge how much they are paying for each dollar of earnings. It is an intuitive measure for comparing similar firms.

Growth expectations and risk both play a major role in what investors consider a fair P/E ratio. Higher expected growth or lower risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or elevated risk typically results in a lower “normal” multiple. Comparing Chart Industries’ P/E with its peers and the industry provides helpful context about market sentiment and sector trends.

Chart Industries currently trades at a P/E ratio of 36.1x, above the Machinery industry average of 24.5x, and also higher than the peer group average of 31.1x. At first glance, this premium might suggest overvaluation, but simply comparing to averages misses key factors unique to each business. This is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” comes in. The Fair Ratio for Chart Industries is 43.9x. This metric factors in the company’s own earnings growth, profitability, risk profile, and market capitalization, offering a more nuanced benchmark than generic comparisons.

Because Chart’s current P/E (36.1x) is lower than its Fair Ratio (43.9x), the shares may actually be trading below what would be expected given its growth and risk characteristics. This suggests the stock is undervalued according to a more complete picture, not just versus peers, but against its own outlook.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Chart Industries Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple and powerful tool that lets you define the "story" behind the numbers, your personal perspective about a company’s future, grounded in your own fair value estimates and forecasts for revenue, earnings, and margins.

Narratives connect what is happening in the real world to financial forecasts, linking a company’s strategic position or risks directly to a fair value that you can then compare to the current price. This can make your buy or sell decision more grounded and meaningful. Available right on Simply Wall St’s Community page and used by millions of investors, Narratives are easy to use, dynamic, and update automatically when new developments like news or earnings are released.

For example, using Chart Industries, one investor’s narrative might focus on the company’s growth in LNG and space exploration, predicting robust earnings and assigning a fair value near $227.0. Meanwhile, a more cautious investor may focus on market risks and liquidity challenges, arriving at a fair value closer to $169.0.

Do you think there's more to the story for Chart Industries? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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