Is Now The Time To Look At Buying GMS Inc. (NYSE:GMS)?

GMS Inc. (NYSE:GMS), is not the largest company out there, but it led the NYSE gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s take a look at GMS’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for GMS

What Is GMS Worth?

According to my valuation model, GMS seems to be fairly priced at around 17% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy GMS today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $72.22, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because GMS’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What does the future of GMS look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of GMS, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -15%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? GMS seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on GMS for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The stock appears to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on GMS should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, we've found that GMS has 3 warning signs (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

If you are no longer interested in GMS, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.