GMS (NYSE:GMS) - Share price, News & Analysis

GMS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

GMS Stock Overview

GMS Inc. distributes wallboard, ceilings, steel framing and complementary construction products in the United States and Canada.

Rewards

Trading at 64.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 4.3% per year

Earnings grew by 159% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

GMS Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for GMS
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$44.41
52 Week High	US$61.79
52 Week Low	US$36.10
Beta	1.87
1 Month Change	-5.19%
3 Month Change	-11.90%
1 Year Change	-7.96%
3 Year Change	101.86%
5 Year Change	58.04%
Change since IPO	102.69%

Shareholder Returns

	GMS	US Trade Distributors	US Market
7D	11.9%	4.4%	6.6%
1Y	-8.0%	-8.8%	-18.5%

Return vs Industry: GMS exceeded the US Trade Distributors industry which returned -12.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GMS exceeded the US Market which returned -20.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GMS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GMS volatility
GMS Average Weekly Movement	6.8%
Trade Distributors Industry Average Movement	7.0%
Market Average Movement	8.0%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: GMS is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GMS's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1971	5,843	John Turner	https://www.gms.com

GMS Inc. distributes wallboard, ceilings, steel framing and complementary construction products in the United States and Canada. The company offers ceilings products, including suspended mineral fibers, soft fibers, and metal ceiling systems primarily used in offices, hotels, hospitals, retail facilities, schools, and various other commercial and institutional buildings. It also provides steel framing products, such as steel tracks, studs, and various other steel products used to frame the interior walls of a commercial or institutional building; and insulation, lumber and other wood products, ready-mix joint compound, and various other interior construction products, as well as ancillary products comprising tools, fasteners, and safety products.

GMS Fundamentals Summary

How do GMS's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GMS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.75b
Earnings (TTM)	US$273.44m
Revenue (TTM)	US$4.63b

6.9x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is GMS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GMS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$4.63b
Cost of Revenue	US$3.14b
Gross Profit	US$1.49b
Other Expenses	US$1.22b
Earnings	US$273.44m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	6.39
Gross Margin	32.19%
Net Profit Margin	5.90%
Debt/Equity Ratio	111.2%

How did GMS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is GMS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GMS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for GMS. This is calculated by dividing GMS's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is GMS's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$1.75b

GMS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.5x
PEG Ratio	1.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GMS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

GMS PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for GMS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GMS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the peer average (12x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GMS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the U.S. Trade Distributors Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GMS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the US Trade Distributors industry average (11.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GMS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GMS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.9x
Fair PE Ratio	15.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GMS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GMS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GMS ($44.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($123.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GMS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GMS is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.6x)

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Future Growth

How is GMS forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

4.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GMS's forecast earnings growth (4.3% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: GMS's earnings (4.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GMS's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GMS's revenue (2.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GMS's revenue (2.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if GMS's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has GMS performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

32.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GMS has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GMS's current net profit margins (5.9%) are higher than last year (3.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GMS's earnings have grown significantly by 32.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GMS's earnings growth over the past year (159%) exceeds its 5-year average (32.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GMS earnings growth over the past year (159%) exceeded the Trade Distributors industry 80.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst GMS's Return on Equity (25.69%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is GMS's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GMS's short term assets ($1.4B) exceed its short term liabilities ($689.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: GMS's short term assets ($1.4B) exceed its long term liabilities ($1.4B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GMS's net debt to equity ratio (101.7%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: GMS's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 115.6% to 111.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GMS's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (15.2%).

Interest Coverage: GMS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (7.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is GMS current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate GMS's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate GMS's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GMS's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GMS's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as GMS has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

John Turner (52 yo)

3.08yrs

Tenure

US$4,134,614

Compensation

Mr. John C. Turner, Jr., has been the President of GMS Inc. since May 1, 2019 and has been its Chief Executive Officer and Director since August 2, 2019. He joined GMS Inc. in 2019. He was the President of...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: John's total compensation ($USD4.13M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.50M).

Compensation vs Earnings: John's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GMS's management team is considered experienced (2.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: GMS's board of directors are considered experienced (3.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/04/30
Annual Earnings	2022/04/30