Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Flowserve Corporation (NYSE:FLS) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Flowserve
What Is Flowserve's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Flowserve had US$1.26b in debt in December 2022; about the same as the year before. However, it does have US$435.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$820.6m.
How Strong Is Flowserve's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Flowserve had liabilities of US$1.24b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.69b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$435.0m in cash and US$1.10b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.39b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Flowserve has a market capitalization of US$4.33b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Flowserve has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.6 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 5.3 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Shareholders should be aware that Flowserve's EBIT was down 22% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Flowserve can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Flowserve recorded free cash flow of 44% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Mulling over Flowserve's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. Having said that, its ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT isn't such a worry. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Flowserve's debt is making it a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Flowserve you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:FLS
Flowserve
Designs, manufactures, distributes, and services industrial flow management equipment in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Flawless balance sheet, undervalued and pays a dividend.