Should You Investigate Ferguson plc (NYSE:FERG) At US$218?

Let's talk about the popular Ferguson plc (NYSE:FERG). The company's shares saw a decent share price growth of 19% on the NYSE over the last few months. The company's trading levels have approached the yearly peak, following the recent bounce in the share price. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s take a look at Ferguson’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out our latest analysis for Ferguson

What's The Opportunity In Ferguson?

Ferguson appears to be overvalued by 33% at the moment, based on our discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at US$218 on the market compared to our intrinsic value of $163.57. Not the best news for investors looking to buy! If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Ferguson’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What kind of growth will Ferguson generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 36% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Ferguson. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in FERG’s positive outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe FERG should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on FERG for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for FERG, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For example - Ferguson has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Ferguson, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.