Earnings Update: Ferguson plc (NYSE:FERG) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

The quarterly results for Ferguson plc (NYSE:FERG) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Ferguson reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$7.3b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.18, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Ferguson

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ferguson's 20 analysts is for revenues of US$31.4b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 9.8% to US$10.16. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$31.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.21 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$215, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ferguson at US$265 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$107. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Ferguson's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Ferguson is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$215, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ferguson going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Ferguson that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.