Does Carrier’s Bigger Dividend and US$5 Billion Buyback Refine Its Capital Allocation Story (CARR)?

• Carrier Global’s board has approved a higher quarterly dividend of US$0.24 per share, payable on 9 February 2026 to investors recorded as shareholders on 20 January 2026.
• This larger dividend, alongside the previously announced US$5.00 billion share buyback plan, highlights Carrier’s focus on returning capital while its core HVAC and refrigeration businesses face mixed end‑market conditions.
• We’ll now explore how Carrier’s higher dividend, paired with its large buyback program, influences the company’s existing investment narrative.

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Carrier Global Investment Narrative Recap

To be comfortable owning Carrier Global, you need to believe in its long term role in energy efficient HVAC and refrigeration, while accepting near term earnings pressure from softer residential demand and regional pockets of weakness. The higher dividend and ongoing US$5.00 billion buyback are supportive for shareholder returns but do not materially change the key near term catalyst, which remains execution on growth and margin targets, or the biggest risk, which is underperformance in weaker business lines and regions.

The recent dividend increase to US$0.24 per share is most closely tied to Carrier’s broader capital return story, which also includes substantial buybacks. That capital return sits alongside catalysts such as new energy efficient products and growing aftermarket services, which together could be important for offsetting challenges in areas like light commercial demand and lower margin European operations.

But investors should also be aware that Carrier’s exposure to tariffs, including around US$300 million not yet fully mitigated, could...

Read the full narrative on Carrier Global (it's free!)

Carrier Global's narrative projects $26.7 billion revenue and $2.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.9% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.4 billion earnings increase from $1.5 billion today.

Uncover how Carrier Global's forecasts yield a $72.69 fair value, a 33% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from about US$26 to over US$50,000 per share, showing just how far opinions can stretch. When you set that against Carrier’s mixed regional performance and tariff exposure, it underlines why many readers may want to compare several different viewpoints before deciding how this stock might fit into their portfolio.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Carrier Global - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Carrier Global Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Carrier Global research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Carrier Global research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Carrier Global's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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