Where Does Atkore Stand After a 4.9% Weekly Gain in 2025?

If you're holding Atkore shares or thinking about jumping in, you're probably asking the big question right now: are these prices offering a good deal, or has the market priced in all the potential? The answer isn't straightforward, but a closer look at Atkore's recent moves makes things interesting. Over the past week, Atkore has climbed 4.9%, adding to a 7.5% gain this past month. These short-term bumps might signal renewed optimism or changing risk perceptions among investors.

Step back, though, and the bigger picture is mixed. The stock is still down 21.8% year-to-date and 24.7% over the last 12 months, despite a massive 165.3% jump over the past five years. This contrast tells a story of volatility and perhaps changing expectations about the business or its broader sector. Industry watchers have pointed to evolving building materials demand as a factor that can sway sentiment quickly for companies like Atkore.

When we run Atkore through a standard set of six valuation checks, it scores a 3: undervalued in half of those categories. That doesn't scream bargain, but it doesn't raise warning sirens either. So, what does that really mean for someone considering the stock today?

Let’s dig into how these valuation approaches actually stack up, and later explore whether there's an even smarter way to interpret Atkore’s true worth.

Why Atkore is lagging behind its peers

Approach 1: Atkore Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model projects a company's expected future cash flows and discounts them back to today's value. This approach attempts to estimate what Atkore’s future stream of money is worth in present terms, helping investors get a clearer sense of intrinsic value.

Atkore’s latest trailing twelve months Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at $242.7 million. Analysts project FCF to decrease over the coming years, with estimates of $126.7 million in 2026 and $178.7 million in 2027. Beyond that, projections are based on longer-term estimates, with Simply Wall St extrapolating FCF going out ten years, bottoming out at just under $140 million and recovering modestly thereafter. All projections are in U.S. dollars and remain well below the company’s recent highs.

Based on these assumptions, the DCF model calculates Atkore’s intrinsic value at $49.96 per share. Since Atkore’s share price is currently about 27.5% higher than this fair value estimate, the stock appears overvalued according to this method.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Atkore.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Atkore may be overvalued by 27.5%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Atkore Price vs Earnings (PE)

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is the go-to valuation metric for profitable companies like Atkore because it directly ties the stock price to the company’s actual earnings performance. It helps investors gauge whether they are paying too much for each dollar of profit the company generates.

What constitutes a “normal” PE ratio depends on growth prospects and business risks. Faster-growing companies or those with reliable earnings are typically valued at higher PE multiples, while slower growth or higher risk pushes the fair range lower. For Atkore, the current PE ratio is 19.2x. That is below the industry average of 28.4x and substantially under the average of direct peers, which stands at 39.1x.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” takes this a step further. Unlike basic peer or sector averages, it weighs Atkore’s earnings growth, profit margins, market cap, and industry context to generate a company-specific benchmark. For Atkore, the Fair Ratio is 39.5x, suggesting the company could justify a much higher multiple based on its overall profile, rather than just following whatever the crowd is doing.

Since Atkore’s PE ratio of 19.2x is well below its Fair Ratio of 39.5x, the numbers point squarely to the stock being undervalued by this method.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Atkore Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there's an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. Narratives are simply your story about a company, where you connect your view on its future opportunities and risks to clear financial forecasts and ultimately to a fair value. This means you are not just looking at numbers in isolation, but linking Atkore’s business reality, such as expansion into new infrastructure markets or exposure to trade policy changes, to your own revenue, earnings, and margin estimates.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives make this process both accessible and powerful. You can explore how millions of investors build their own stories for each stock, layering in their unique insights, forecasts, and assumptions to arrive at a personalized fair value. Narratives really shine because they are dynamic. When news breaks or new earnings are released, the forecasts and fair values in the Community update automatically, keeping your decision-making relevant in fast-moving markets.

For example, some investors are optimistic, projecting higher infrastructure spending and margin improvement and arrive at a fair value of $66.60 for Atkore, while more cautious users, concerned about declining prices and margin pressure, use lower revenue forecasts and future multiples, resulting in a lower fair value of $49.96. Narratives help you visualize the gap between the current price and your own fair value, so you can confidently decide whether to buy, hold, or sell Atkore based on your beliefs rather than just relying on analyst consensus.

Do you think there's more to the story for Atkore? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com