Stock Analysis

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ALSN) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

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Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:ALSN) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.5x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

Recent times have been pleasing for Allison Transmission Holdings as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings are going to fall away like everyone else's soon. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

See our latest analysis for Allison Transmission Holdings

NYSE:ALSN Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry April 15th 2024
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Allison Transmission Holdings.

Is There Any Growth For Allison Transmission Holdings?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Allison Transmission Holdings would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 35%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 193% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the nine analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 9.6% per year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% each year, which is not materially different.

With this information, we find it odd that Allison Transmission Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can achieve future growth expectations.

The Final Word

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Allison Transmission Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Allison Transmission Holdings you should know about.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Allison Transmission Holdings is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.