AGCO Corporation's (NYSE:AGCO) Shares Lagging The Market But So Is The Business

AGCO Corporation's (NYSE:AGCO) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.9x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

AGCO certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

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How Is AGCO's Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, AGCO would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 36%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 470% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 5.8% per year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 12% growth each year, that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we are not surprised that AGCO is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Bottom Line On AGCO's P/E

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of AGCO's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with AGCO, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than AGCO. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.