AerCap Holdings (NYSE:AER) Is Posting Solid Earnings, But It Is Not All Good News

By
Simply Wall St
Published
November 16, 2021
NYSE:AER
Source: Shutterstock

AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) posted some decent earnings, but shareholders didn't react strongly. Our analysis suggests they may be concerned about some underlying details.

View our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings

earnings-and-revenue-history
NYSE:AER Earnings and Revenue History November 17th 2021

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. As it happens, AerCap Holdings issued 88% more new shares over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. Check out AerCap Holdings' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

How Is Dilution Impacting AerCap Holdings' Earnings Per Share? (EPS)

Unfortunately, we don't have any visibility into its profits three years back, because we lack the data. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). Therefore, one can observe that the dilution is having a fairly profound effect on shareholder returns.

In the long term, if AerCap Holdings' earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Finally, we should also consider the fact that unusual items boosted AerCap Holdings' net profit by US$372m over the last year. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Assuming those unusual items don't show up again in the current year, we'd thus expect profit to be weaker next year (in the absence of business growth, that is).

Our Take On AerCap Holdings' Profit Performance

To sum it all up, AerCap Holdings got a nice boost to profit from unusual items; without that, its statutory results would have looked worse. On top of that, the dilution means that its earnings per share performance is worse than its profit performance. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at AerCap Holdings' statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with AerCap Holdings (including 2 which can't be ignored).

Our examination of AerCap Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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