AerCap (AER) Valuation Check as New Uzbekistan A321neo Lease Deal Expands Its Central Asia Footprint

AerCap Holdings (NYSE:AER) just expanded its Central Asia footprint, signing lease deals for two Airbus A321neo aircraft with Uzbekistan based cargo and passenger operator My Freighter, with deliveries slated for late 2027.

See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings.

That Central Asia push lands on top of a fresh billion dollar buyback authorization and new 777 300ERSF deliveries, and investors seem to like the direction, with strong recent share price momentum and robust multi year total shareholder returns. Together these factors suggest confidence in AerCap’s growth and capital return story is building.

If this kind of aviation driven rerating has your attention, it could be worth scanning other aerospace and defense stocks that might be enjoying similar tailwinds.

With AerCap’s shares up roughly 45 percent year to date and trading only modestly below analyst targets, the key question now is whether investors are still underestimating its earnings power or are already pricing in years of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 5.6% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value anchored at 148 dollars versus AerCap’s last close around 140 dollars, the spread hints at modest upside if its assumptions land.

Prudent capital allocation, supported by a strong balance sheet and ongoing deleveraging, positions AerCap to capture opportunities in sale leasebacks and organic fleet growth as OEM deliveries ramp up, driving revenue and earnings upside while containing interest expense.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a business with muted growth expectations still commands a richer future earnings multiple and shrinking share count in this narrative? The full story connects tight aircraft supply, changing margins, and an aggressive capital return play into one bold valuation puzzle.

Result: Fair Value of $148 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a faster ramp in OEM deliveries or a sharper downturn in key airline customers could quickly compress lease yields and challenge today’s bullish assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this AerCap Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative

If the assumptions behind this view do not quite align with your own, dive into the numbers yourself and build a custom outlook in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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